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Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali prediction

Bulgaria · First League

Spartak Varna#7 · 16 ptsLLWLD

3 - 2Full time

Arda Kardzhali#6 · 21 ptsWDLDL

20%33%46%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Birsent Karagaren 16'⚽ Vyacheslav Velev 34'⚽ Okoh chidera 36'⚽ anton ivanov 52'⚽ Okoh chidera 86'

Sunday, November 8 · 07:00 (Peru time) · Stadion Spartak · Referee: Radoslav Gidzhenov

🎯 Model pick

Arda Kardzhali or draw

80%

Full data

Spartak Varna in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5
Head to head: 4W 1D 2L for Arda Kardzhali

⚡ Summary

46%Arda Kardzhali to win@2.16 41%Over 2.5 goals@2.46 49%Both teams to score@2.06 32%Corners +9.5 (8.1)@3.1662%Cards +4.5 (5.6)@1.621-1Most likely score · 15%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+2🔁 Sub: Boubacar Hanne · Joey TshitokuSpartak Varna

90'+2🔁 Sub: Dimo Krastev · angel gomesSpartak Varna

90'+1🔁 Sub: Lachezar Kotev · David idowuArda Kardzhali

86'⚽ Okoh chideraSpartak Varna

80'🔁 Sub: Tomas Silva · BuaSpartak Varna

70'🔁 Sub: Sámuel Major · ricardo sousaSpartak Varna

70'🔁 Sub: anton ivanov · Joao LopesSpartak Varna

62'🔁 Sub: Birsent Karagaren · Antonio VutovArda Kardzhali

62'🔁 Sub: Preslav·Bachev · Nabil MakniArda Kardzhali

52'⚽ anton ivanovSpartak Varna

36'⚽ Okoh chidera assist Deyan LozevSpartak Varna

34'⚽ Vyacheslav VelevArda Kardzhali

16'⚽ Birsent Karagaren assist Stanislav IvanovArda Kardzhali

Win probability minute by minute

Spartak VarnaDrawArda Kardzhali

At kick-off20%33%46%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

20%Spartak Varna to win@4.90

33%Draw@3.00

46%Arda Kardzhali to win@2.16

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score49%

Spartak Varna or draw54%

Arda Kardzhali or draw80%

Spartak Varna to score59%

Arda Kardzhali to score76%

Most likely scores

1-115%0-013%0-112%0-29%1-28%

Expected goals per the model: Spartak Varna 0.90 · Arda Kardzhali 1.44

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.34.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 8.1 in total · Spartak Varna 3.5 · Arda Kardzhali 4.6

41%Over 8.5@2.41

32%Over 9.5@3.16

23%Over 10.5@4.29

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 5.6 · el árbitro Radoslav Gidzhenov saca 6.5 por partido

76%Over 3.5@1.31

62%Over 4.5@1.62

47%Over 5.5@2.14

⏱️ First half

44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.04

65%Goal in the 1st half@1.55

28%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.59

73%Goal in the 2st half@1.37

⚽ Goals per team

23%Spartak Varna +1.5@4.40

42%Arda Kardzhali +1.5@2.37

12%Spartak Varna to win to nil@8.58

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

6Corners3

0Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

62Possession %38

5Shots on target5

9Shots6

Goals in the last 10 matches

Spartak Varna · last 10 matches

3/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score2.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Arda Kardzhali · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Spartak VarnaArda Kardzhali

0.9Goals scored per match1.4

1.8Goals conceded per match1.5

62%Matches with over 1.5 goals85%

38%Matches with over 2.5 goals46%

38%Both teams to score62%

31%Clean sheet31%

38%Matches without scoring8%

2.8Corners won per match3.7

2.2Yellow cards per match2.2

Spartak Varna: 13 matches · Arda Kardzhali: 13 matches (all competitions with data).

Spartak Varna at home · Arda Kardzhali away

Spartak Varna at home

1G3E2P

LDDLW

Arda Kardzhali away

2G1E3P

LLWWL

When do they score and concede?

Spartak Varna · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

Arda Kardzhali · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Spartak Varna

Scores first in 6 of 12 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 1.

Arda Kardzhali

Scores first in 9 of 13 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Spartak Varna

Joao Lopes · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

anton ivanov · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

B. Hanne · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Arda Kardzhali

Dimitar Velkovski · 0 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches

Stanislav Ivanov · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Svetoslav Kovachev · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

2Spartak Varna to win

1Draws

4Arda Kardzhali to win

7 matches · 2.6 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-02-27	Arda Kardzhali 1-0 Spartak Varna	First League
2025-09-13	Spartak Varna 3-0 Arda Kardzhali	First League
2025-02-07	Arda Kardzhali 2-2 Spartak Varna	First League
2024-08-16	Spartak Varna 1-0 Arda Kardzhali	First League
2023-03-06	Arda Kardzhali 2-0 Spartak Varna	First League
2022-08-20	Spartak Varna 1-3 Arda Kardzhali	First League

Standings

First League standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia	14	+23	34
2	Levski Sofia	13	+17	32
3	Ludogorets	13	+15	30
4	CSKA 1948	14	+17	29
5	Botev Plovdiv	14	+2	23
6	Arda Kardzhali	14	-2	21
7	Spartak Varna	14	-10	16
8	Slavia Sofia	14	0	14
9	Cherno More Varna	14	-8	13
10	Dunav Ruse	14	-7	12
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	14	-10	12
12	Septemvri Sofia	14	-13	11
13	Botev Vratsa	14	-13	10
14	Lokomotiv Sofia	14	-11	9

More stats

Referee: Radoslav Gidzhenov

12 matches · 6.3 yellows and 0.25 reds per match · 0.50 penalties

Half-time

Spartak Varna: 8 days since last match · Arda Kardzhali: 5 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 14:30 UTC.