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Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia prediction

Bulgaria · First League

Septemvri Sofia#12 · 11 ptsLLLLL

1 - 0Full time

Lokomotiv Sofia#14 · 9 ptsLDDWL

22%31%47%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Pedro Ferreira 49'

Friday, 6 November · 10:00 (Peru time) · Dragalevtsi Stadium,

🎯 Model pick

Lokomotiv Sofia to score

80%

Full data

Lokomotiv Sofia scored in 12 of 13 matches this season
Septemvri Sofia concede 1.9 goals per match
Septemvri Sofia kept a clean sheet in only 2 of 13

⚡ Summary

47%Lokomotiv Sofia to win@2.13 50%Over 2.5 goals@1.98 56%Both teams to score@1.80 43%Corners +9.5 (9.2)@2.3370%Cards +4.5 (6.2)@1.421-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

87'🔁 Sub: Spas Delev · caruzo caueLokomotiv Sofia

86'🔁 Sub: Frantzety Herard · nikola genchevSeptemvri Sofia

79'🔁 Sub: Krasimir Stanoev · Kaloyan KostovLokomotiv Sofia

77'🔁 Sub: nicolas fontaine · Kubrat OnasciSeptemvri Sofia

66'🔁 Sub: Andre Liberal · edney ribeiroSeptemvri Sofia

63'🟨 Angel LyaskovLokomotiv Sofia

60'🔁 Sub: Antonio Miguel Tavares Eiro de Carvalho · Joyce Kati KatulondiLokomotiv Sofia

49'⚽ Pedro FerreiraSeptemvri Sofia

46'🔁 Sub: pedrinho · Pedro IgorSeptemvri Sofia

46'🔁 Sub: Mohamed Medfai · Dimitar KostadinovLokomotiv Sofia

46'🔁 Sub: aleksandar dzhamov · borislav stoichkovSeptemvri Sofia

33'🟨 Antonio Miguel Tavares Eiro de CarvalhoLokomotiv Sofia

31'🟨 Martin HristovSeptemvri Sofia

24'🟨 Ante AralicaLokomotiv Sofia

2'🟨 Pedro FerreiraSeptemvri Sofia

Win probability minute by minute

Septemvri SofiaDrawLokomotiv Sofia

At kick-off22%31%47%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

22%Septemvri Sofia to win@4.54

31%Draw@3.22

47%Lokomotiv Sofia to win@2.13

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Septemvri Sofia or draw53%

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw78%

Septemvri Sofia to score67%

Lokomotiv Sofia to score80%

Most likely scores

1-114%0-19%0-09%1-29%0-28%

Expected goals per the model: Septemvri Sofia 1.10 · Lokomotiv Sofia 1.65

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.75.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.2 in total · Septemvri Sofia 4.4 · Lokomotiv Sofia 4.8

53%Over 8.5@1.87

43%Over 9.5@2.33

33%Over 10.5@2.99

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 6.2

83%Over 3.5@1.21

70%Over 4.5@1.42

56%Over 5.5@1.77

⏱️ First half

41% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.12

67%Goal in the 1st half@1.48

31%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.23

80%Goal in the 2st half@1.24

⚽ Goals per team

30%Septemvri Sofia +1.5@3.32

49%Lokomotiv Sofia +1.5@2.04

11%Septemvri Sofia to win to nil@9.39

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

3Corners8

5Shots on target3

2Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

39Possession %61

8Shots10

Goals in the last 10 matches

Septemvri Sofia · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Lokomotiv Sofia · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.0goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Septemvri SofiaLokomotiv Sofia

0.8Goals scored per match1.1

1.9Goals conceded per match1.9

85%Matches with over 1.5 goals92%

62%Matches with over 2.5 goals54%

54%Both teams to score85%

15%Clean sheet8%

31%Matches without scoring8%

3.9Corners won per match5.0

2.9Yellow cards per match3.1

Septemvri Sofia: 13 matches · Lokomotiv Sofia: 13 matches (all competitions with data).

Septemvri Sofia at home · Lokomotiv Sofia away

Septemvri Sofia at home

1G1E4P

LLLWL

Lokomotiv Sofia away

1G4E1P

WDDLD

When do they score and concede?

Septemvri Sofia · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

Lokomotiv Sofia · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Septemvri Sofia

Scores first in 3 of 13 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 10 and avoids defeat in 2.

Lokomotiv Sofia

Scores first in 4 of 13 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 4.

Players in form

Septemvri Sofia

Andre Liberal · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

F. Herard · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Lokomotiv Sofia

Spas Delev · 0 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches

Adil Taoui · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Dimitar Kostadinov · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

3Septemvri Sofia to win

3Draws

4Lokomotiv Sofia to win

10 matches · 2.4 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-04-27	Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Septemvri Sofia	First League
2026-03-17	Lokomotiv Sofia 3-0 Septemvri Sofia	First League
2025-08-29	Septemvri Sofia 1-0 Lokomotiv Sofia	First League
2025-05-20	Septemvri Sofia 0-2 Lokomotiv Sofia	First League
2024-12-08	Lokomotiv Sofia 1-2 Septemvri Sofia	First League
2024-08-12	Septemvri Sofia 0-1 Lokomotiv Sofia	First League

Standings

First League standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia	14	+23	34
2	Levski Sofia	13	+17	32
3	Ludogorets	13	+15	30
4	CSKA 1948	14	+17	29
5	Botev Plovdiv	14	+2	23
6	Arda Kardzhali	14	-2	21
7	Spartak Varna	14	-10	16
8	Slavia Sofia	14	0	14
9	Cherno More Varna	14	-8	13
10	Dunav Ruse	14	-7	12
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	14	-10	12
12	Septemvri Sofia	14	-13	11
13	Botev Vratsa	14	-13	10
14	Lokomotiv Sofia	14	-11	9

More stats

Half-time

Septemvri Sofia: 3 days since last match · Lokomotiv Sofia: 6 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 17:30 UTC.