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Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente prediction

Portugal · Primeira Liga
Santa Clara badgeSanta Clara#4 · 21 ptsWLLWD
1 - 2Full time
GIL Vicente badgeGIL Vicente#7 · 18 ptsDLWWW

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Antonio Espigares 29' (p.p.)⚽ Walace França 52'🟥 Pedro Pacheco 62'⚽ Murilo Souza 81'

Sunday, November 8 · 10:30 (Peru time) · Estádio de São Miguel · Referee: Diogo Rosa

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Santa Clara or draw

77%
Full data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

89'🔁 Sub: Murilo Souza · Agustín MoreiraGIL Vicente
88'🔁 Sub: António João Gonçalves Infante · Léo JacóSanta Clara
87'🟨 Mohamed KabaGIL Vicente
84'🔁 Sub: José Tavares · Vitor Hugo Amorim de AssisSanta Clara
84'🔁 Sub: Vinicius lopes · Luiz Fernando Salles De CastroSanta Clara
84'🔁 Sub: Walace França · Mohamed KabaGIL Vicente
84'🔁 Sub: Andreas Lausen · Guilherme GomesGIL Vicente
83'🔁 Sub: Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira · Gonçalo PaciênciaSanta Clara
81'⚽ Murilo SouzaGIL Vicente
79'🟨 António João Gonçalves InfanteSanta Clara
71'🔁 Sub: Diogo Prioste · Jose Carlos Natario FerreiraGIL Vicente
65'🔁 Sub: Joao Vasconcelos · Henrique SilvaSanta Clara
62'🟥 Pedro PachecoSanta Clara
59'🟨 Emanuel MoreiraSanta Clara
52'⚽ Walace França assist Murilo SouzaGIL Vicente
42'🟨 Luis Fernando Santos OliveiraSanta Clara
29'⚽ Antonio Espigares (own goal)Santa Clara
27'🟨 Diogo PriosteGIL Vicente
3'🟨 Lucas SoaresSanta Clara

Win probability minute by minute

Santa ClaraDrawGIL Vicente
At kick-off42%35%23%Full time0%0%100%
0%25%50%75%100% ⚽⚽⚽0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

42%Santa Clara to win@2.36
35%Draw@2.87
23%GIL Vicente to win@4.39
Over 1.5 goals63%
Over 2.5 goals35%
Over 3.5 goals17%
Both teams to score45%
Santa Clara or draw77%
GIL Vicente or draw58%
Santa Clara to score71%
GIL Vicente to score57%

Most likely scores

0-015%1-115%1-013%2-09%0-19%

Expected goals per the model: Santa Clara 1.24 · GIL Vicente 0.86

How many goals will there be?

12%0 goals26%1 goals27%2 goals19%3 goals10%4 goals6%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.10.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 8.4 in total · Santa Clara 4.3 · GIL Vicente 4.0

44%Over 8.5@2.25
34%Over 9.5@2.92
26%Over 10.5@3.91
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.8

67%Over 3.5@1.49
51%Over 4.5@1.97
36%Over 5.5@2.80

⏱️ First half

43% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.89

59%Goal in the 1st half@1.69
22%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@4.45
70%Goal in the 2st half@1.43

⚽ Goals per team

35%Santa Clara +1.5@2.84
21%GIL Vicente +1.5@4.70
28%Santa Clara to win to nil@3.63

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.79Expected goals (xG)1.37
2Saves0
1Red cards0
9Shots20
4Yellow cards2
1Corners9
0Shots on target4
0Offsides2
13Fouls14
54Possession %46

Goals in the last 10 matches

Santa Clara · last 10 matches
5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.4goals per match
2.5vs Famalicao: 1-0 1-0 en Alverca: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Rio Ave: 4-0 4-0 en Arouca: 2-1 2-1 ambosvs SC Braga: 0-0 0-0 en Casa Pia: 1-0 1-0 en Mafra: 2-3 2-3 ambosvs Benfica: 1-2 1-2 ambosen Maritimo: 2-0 2-0 vs GIL Vicente: 1-2 1-2 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

GIL Vicente · last 10 matches
4/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.0goals per match
2.5en Famalicao: 0-0 0-0 vs Academico Viseu: 0-1 0-1 en Benfica: 1-3 1-3 ambosvs Maritimo: 1-1 1-1 ambosen Moreirense: 1-0 1-0 en União Santarém: 3-2 3-2 ambosen SC Braga: 2-1 2-1 ambosvs FC Porto: 0-1 0-1 vs Vitória SC: 0-0 0-0 at Santa Clara: 2-1 2-1 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Santa ClaraGIL Vicente
1.6Goals scored per match1.0
0.8Goals conceded per match0.8
64%Matches with over 1.5 goals45%
45%Matches with over 2.5 goals27%
45%Both teams to score36%
55%Clean sheet45%
9%Matches without scoring36%
3.7Corners won per match3.1
2.5Yellow cards per match2.0

Santa Clara: 11 matches · GIL Vicente: 11 matches (all competitions with data).

Santa Clara at home · GIL Vicente away

Santa Clara at home
2G2E1P
LDWWD
GIL Vicente away
3G1E1P
WWWLD

When do they score and concede?

Santa Clara · goals by minute in 11 matches scored conceded
300-154016-303331-453146-601361-753276-90
GIL Vicente · goals by minute in 11 matches scored conceded
210-151116-301131-452246-601161-754376-90

The first goal

Santa Clara

Scores first in 9 of 10 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 1 and avoids defeat in 1.

GIL Vicente

Scores first in 5 of 9 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

Santa Clara

Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Tiago Ribeiro · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

J. Tavares · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

GIL Vicente

Walace Franca · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

A. Moreira · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches

Ze Carlos · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

5Santa Clara to win
1Draws
3GIL Vicente to win

9 matches · 2.2 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-03-21Santa Clara 1-0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2025-11-03GIL Vicente 1-0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2025-03-15GIL Vicente 0-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2024-10-25Santa Clara 2-1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2023-05-06Santa Clara 3-2 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2022-12-29GIL Vicente 1-0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga

Standings

Primeira Liga standings
#TeamPGDPts
1FC Porto11+2233
2Benfica11+2028
3Sporting CP11+1324
4Santa Clara11+821
5Arouca11+520
6Academico Viseu11+220
7GIL Vicente11+218
8SC Braga11+217
9Moreirense11-514
10Famalicao11+113
11Alverca11-112
12Estrela11-510
13Nacional11-810
14Vitória SC11-19
15Maritimo10-128
16Casa Pia11-148
17Rio Ave11-157
18Estoril10-142

More stats

Referee: Diogo Rosa

5 matches · – yellows and – reds per match

Half-time

Santa Clara: 6 days since last match · GIL Vicente: 5 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 18:00 UTC.

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