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Rio Ave vs SC Braga prediction

Portugal · Primeira Liga

Rio Ave#17 · 7 ptsLLWWL

0 - 1Full time

SC Braga#8 · 17 ptsDWLWL

14%25%61%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Ricardo Horta 67' (p)

Sunday, November 8 · 15:30 (Peru time) · Estádio dos Arcos · Referee: Claudio Pereira

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

80%

Full data

2+ goals in 8 of 11 Rio Ave matches
Head to head: 2.7 goals per match
Picky expects 3.0 goals (0.9 - 2.0)

⚡ Summary

61%SC Braga to win@1.64 56%Over 2.5 goals@1.79 53%Both teams to score@1.90 37%Corners +9.5 (8.7)@2.6739%Cards +4.5 (4.1)@2.541-1Most likely score · 12%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+4🔁 Sub: Fra Navarro · Jovan MilosevicSC Braga

81'🔁 Sub: Jean-Baptiste Gorby · Vitor CarvalhoSC Braga

81'🔁 Sub: Ricardo Horta · Denis HuseinbasicSC Braga

79'🟨 Fra NavarroSC Braga

77'🔁 Sub: Jose Carlos Teixeira Lopes Reis Goncalves · Ryan GuilhermeRio Ave

77'🔁 Sub: Miguel Patricío · Tamble Ulisses Folgado MonteiroRio Ave

69'🔁 Sub: Julien Lomboto · Francisco PetrassoRio Ave

69'🔁 Sub: João Tomé Baptista · Jose Carlos Teixeira Lopes Reis GoncalvesRio Ave

69'🔁 Sub: Sebastian Clemensen · Brandon AguileraRio Ave

67'🟨 Diogo BezerraRio Ave

67'⚽ Ricardo Horta (pen.)SC Braga

64'📺 Gustaf LagerbielkeSC Braga

60'🔁 Sub: Bright Arrey Mbi · Victor GómezSC Braga

60'🔁 Sub: Gabriel Martínez Aguilera · Mario DorgelesSC Braga

53'🟨 Diogo NascimentoRio Ave

Win probability minute by minute

Rio AveDrawSC Braga

At kick-off14%25%61%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

14%Rio Ave to win@7.13

25%Draw@3.99

61%SC Braga to win@1.64

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score53%

Rio Ave or draw39%

SC Braga or draw86%

Rio Ave to score60%

SC Braga to score86%

Most likely scores

1-112%0-210%0-110%1-29%0-07%

Expected goals per the model: Rio Ave 0.93 · SC Braga 2.05

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.98.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 8.7 in total · Rio Ave 3.4 · SC Braga 5.3

48%Over 8.5@2.10

37%Over 9.5@2.67

28%Over 10.5@3.52

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.1

56%Over 3.5@1.78

39%Over 4.5@2.54

26%Over 5.5@3.92

⏱️ First half

37% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.11

67%Goal in the 1st half@1.49

30%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.28

85%Goal in the 2st half@1.18

⚽ Goals per team

24%Rio Ave +1.5@4.19

61%SC Braga +1.5@1.65

6%Rio Ave to win to nil@15.58

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

3Shots on target2

1Saves3

2Offsides3

4Shots13

2Yellow cards1

0Corners8

12Fouls22

0Red cards0

54Possession %46

0.26Expected goals (xG)1.89

Goals in the last 10 matches

Rio Ave · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals3/10both teams to score3.1goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

SC Braga · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals2/10both teams to score1.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Rio AveSC Braga

0.9Goals scored per match1.2

2.1Goals conceded per match0.7

73%Matches with over 1.5 goals53%

55%Matches with over 2.5 goals42%

27%Both teams to score26%

18%Clean sheet63%

55%Matches without scoring32%

4.0Corners won per match5.0

1.9Yellow cards per match1.9

Rio Ave: 11 matches · SC Braga: 19 matches (all competitions with data).

Rio Ave at home · SC Braga away

Rio Ave at home

1G1E3P

LWDLL

SC Braga away

2G5E3P

DLLDL

When do they score and concede?

Rio Ave · goals by minute in 11 matches scored conceded

SC Braga · goals by minute in 19 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Rio Ave

Scores first in 3 of 11 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 2.

SC Braga

Scores first in 11 of 15 matches and wins 8 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Rio Ave

J. Blesa · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

S. Clemmensen · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Miguel Patricío · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

SC Braga

Victor Gómez · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

Pau Victor · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

G. Martinez · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

1Rio Ave to win

3Draws

6SC Braga to win

10 matches · 2.7 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-02-08	SC Braga 3-0 Rio Ave	Primeira Liga
2025-08-31	Rio Ave 2-2 SC Braga	Primeira Liga
2025-03-02	Rio Ave 2-1 SC Braga	Primeira Liga
2024-09-29	SC Braga 4-0 Rio Ave	Primeira Liga
2024-03-09	Rio Ave 0-0 SC Braga	Primeira Liga
2023-10-07	SC Braga 2-1 Rio Ave	Primeira Liga

Standings

Primeira Liga standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	11	+22	33
2	Benfica	11	+20	28
3	Sporting CP	11	+13	24
4	Santa Clara	11	+8	21
5	Arouca	11	+5	20
6	Academico Viseu	11	+2	20
7	GIL Vicente	11	+2	18
8	SC Braga	11	+2	17
9	Moreirense	11	-5	14
10	Famalicao	11	+1	13
11	Alverca	11	-1	12
12	Estrela	11	-5	10
13	Nacional	11	-8	10
14	Vitória SC	11	-1	9
15	Maritimo	10	-12	8
16	Casa Pia	11	-14	8
17	Rio Ave	11	-15	7
18	Estoril	10	-14	2

More stats

Half-time

Rio Ave: 7 days since last match · SC Braga: 3 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC.