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Philadelphia Unión vs Toronto FC prediction

United States · Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Unión#6 · 50 ptsLDLDW

4 - 1Full time

Toronto FC#12 · 39 ptsLWLWD

64%22%14%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Cavan Sullivan 28'⚽ Quinn Sullivan 41' (p)⚽ Josh Sargent 45'⚽ Cavan Sullivan 58'⚽ Bruno Damiani 73' (p)

Saturday, November 7 · 16:00 (Peru time) · Talen Energy Stadium · Referee: Tim Ford

🎯 Model pick

Over 2.5 goals

68%

Full data

3+ goals in 22 of 33 Philadelphia Unión matches
Also in 23 of 33 Toronto FC matches
Head to head: 3.5 goals per match

⚡ Summary

64%Philadelphia Unión to win@1.56 68%Over 2.5 goals@1.48 61%Both teams to score@1.64 50%Corners +9.5 (9.9)@2.0041%Cards +4.5 (4.2)@2.461-1Most likely score · 10%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+7🔁 Sub: Quinn Sullivan · Alejandro BedoyaPhiladelphia Unión

90'+4🔁 Sub: Jonathan Osorio · Derrick Etienne Jr.Toronto FC

90'+3🟨 Emilio AristizábalToronto FC

90'🔁 Sub: Cavan Sullivan · Malik JakupovicPhiladelphia Unión

87'🟨 Benjamin BenderPhiladelphia Unión

82'🔁 Sub: Bruno Damiani · Ezekiel Kwame AlladohPhiladelphia Unión

78'🔁 Sub: Josh Sargent · Emilio AristizábalToronto FC

77'🔁 Sub: Jovan Lukic · Benjamin BenderPhiladelphia Unión

74'🔁 Sub: Markus Cimermancic · Niklas DorschToronto FC

73'⚽ Bruno Damiani (pen.)Philadelphia Unión

67'🟨 Jonathan OsorioToronto FC

62'🔁 Sub: Lewis Morgan · Theo CorbeanuToronto FC

62'🔁 Sub: Zane Monlouis · Matheus Pereira de SouzaToronto FC

61'🔁 Sub: Alejandro Piedrahita Díaz · Dániel SallóiToronto FC

58'⚽ Cavan Sullivan assist Quinn SullivanPhiladelphia Unión

45'+7⚽ Josh Sargent assist Djordje MihailovicToronto FC

45'+4📺 Francis WestfieldPhiladelphia Unión

45'🟨 Jovan LukicPhiladelphia Unión

45'🔁 Sub: Andre Blake · Andrew RickPhiladelphia Unión

41'⚽ Quinn Sullivan (pen.)Philadelphia Unión

28'⚽ Cavan Sullivan assist Indiana VassilevPhiladelphia Unión

11'📺 Quinn SullivanPhiladelphia Unión

Win probability minute by minute

Philadelphia UniónDrawToronto FC

At kick-off64%22%14%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

64%Philadelphia Unión to win@1.56

22%Draw@4.52

14%Toronto FC to win@7.35

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score61%

Philadelphia Unión or draw86%

Toronto FC or draw36%

Philadelphia Unión to score91%

Toronto FC to score68%

Most likely scores

1-110%2-19%2-08%3-17%1-06%

Expected goals per the model: Philadelphia Unión 2.46 · Toronto FC 1.13

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.59.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.9 in total · Philadelphia Unión 5.8 · Toronto FC 4.0

60%Over 8.5@1.66

50%Over 9.5@2.00

40%Over 10.5@2.49

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.2

57%Over 3.5@1.74

41%Over 4.5@2.46

27%Over 5.5@3.75

⏱️ First half

39% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.39

75%Goal in the 1st half@1.33

41%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.46

89%Goal in the 2st half@1.13

⚽ Goals per team

70%Philadelphia Unión +1.5@1.42

31%Toronto FC +1.5@3.21

28%Philadelphia Unión to win to nil@3.56

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

3.61Expected goals (xG)0.61

9Shots on target1

4Offsides2

19Shots6

2Yellow cards2

6Corners1

0Saves4

15Fouls11

0Red cards0

43Possession %57

Goals in the last 10 matches

Philadelphia Unión · last 10 matches

8/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Toronto FC · last 10 matches

8/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Philadelphia UniónToronto FC

1.9Goals scored per match1.6

1.6Goals conceded per match1.9

79%Matches with over 1.5 goals91%

67%Matches with over 2.5 goals70%

67%Both teams to score79%

21%Clean sheet12%

21%Matches without scoring15%

6.1Corners won per match4.5

2.2Yellow cards per match1.9

Philadelphia Unión: 33 matches · Toronto FC: 33 matches (all competitions with data).

Philadelphia Unión at home · Toronto FC away

Philadelphia Unión at home

7G5E4P

LDWWW

Toronto FC away

3G3E10P

LLWLL

When do they score and concede?

Philadelphia Unión · goals by minute in 27 matches scored conceded

Toronto FC · goals by minute in 27 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Philadelphia Unión

Scores first in 14 of 24 matches and wins 8 of them.

Concedes first in 10 and avoids defeat in 6.

Toronto FC

Scores first in 6 of 25 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 19 and avoids defeat in 9.

Players in form

Philadelphia Unión

B. Damiani · 3 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

M. Iloski · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches

N. Pierre · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Toronto FC

Josh Sargent · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

D. Salloi · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

T. Corbeanu · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

3Philadelphia Unión to win

4Draws

3Toronto FC to win

10 matches · 3.5 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-04-22	Toronto FC 3-3 Philadelphia Unión	Major League Soccer
2025-08-09	Philadelphia Unión 1-1 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
2025-05-28	Toronto FC 1-2 Philadelphia Unión	Major League Soccer
2024-07-13	Toronto FC 2-1 Philadelphia Unión	Major League Soccer
2024-05-29	Philadelphia Unión 0-0 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
2023-08-30	Toronto FC 3-1 Philadelphia Unión	Major League Soccer

Standings

Major League Soccer standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	34	+46	77
2	Inter Miami	34	+21	60
3	New England Revolution	34	+8	58
4	Chicago Fire	34	+10	55
5	Charlotte	34	+15	54
6	Philadelphia Unión	34	+14	50
7	Columbus Crew	34	+7	47
8	Orlando City SC	34	-15	46
9	FC Cincinnati	34	-8	46
10	New York Red Bulls	34	-14	42
11	New York City FC	34	+4	42
12	Toronto FC	34	-15	39
13	Atlanta United FC	34	-17	33
14	DC United	34	-22	33
15	CF Montreal	34	-32	26

More stats

Referee: Tim Ford

11 matches · – yellows and – reds per match

Half-time

Philadelphia Unión: 7 days since last match · Toronto FC: 5 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 23:30 UTC.