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Leganés vs Burgos prediction
Spain · Segunda División
Leganés
BurgosProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Friday, November 13 · 14:30 (Peru time) · Estadio Municipal de Butarque
Leganés to score
72%- Burgos kept a clean sheet in only 3 of 14
- Millan is on fire: 3 goals in his last 3 matches
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Leganés and Burgos meet in the Segunda División.
The PickMania model gives Leganés a 40% chance of winning, 30% for the draw and 30% for Burgos.
2.3 total goals are expected (1.3 from Leganés and 1.1 from Burgos): over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance and both teams to score 49%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Leganés 1.28 · Burgos 1.06
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.34.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.4 in total · Leganés 4.4 · Burgos 5.0
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 6.0
⏱️ First half
48% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.13
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Leganés: 14 matches · Burgos: 14 matches (all competitions with data).
Leganés at home · Burgos away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 5 of 13 matches and wins 4 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 1.
Scores first in 6 of 13 matches and wins 4 of them.
Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 5.
Players in form
A. Millan · 3 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches
Álvaro Morata · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Alejandro San Cristobal Sanchez · 0 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches
Curro · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Alberto Dadie · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Oier Luengo Redondo · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
8 matches · 2.0 goals per match
| 2026-01-31 | Burgos 2-1 Leganés | Segunda División |
| 2025-11-01 | Leganés 1-2 Burgos | Segunda División |
| 2024-01-22 | Leganés 2-0 Burgos | Segunda División |
| 2023-10-04 | Burgos 1-0 Leganés | Segunda División |
| 2023-05-12 | Burgos 0-3 Leganés | Segunda División |
| 2022-09-18 | Leganés 0-0 Burgos | Segunda División |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almería | 13 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 | Castellón | 12 | +18 | 27 |
| 3 | Burgos | 13 | +5 | 24 |
| 4 | Eibar | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 5 | Granada CF | 12 | +6 | 23 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 12 | +8 | 22 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 13 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Girona | 13 | +10 | 21 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 13 | +3 | 21 |
| 10 | Las Palmas | 13 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 | Córdoba | 13 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 | Valladolid | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 | Sabadell | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 | Tenerife | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 | Eldense | 13 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 13 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Real Sociedad II | 13 | -7 | 12 |
| 18 | Leganés | 13 | -12 | 12 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 20 | Cádiz | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 21 | Albacete | 13 | -11 | 10 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 13 | -20 | 5 |
More stats
Leganés: 3 days since last match · Burgos: 6 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.