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Famalicao vs Arouca prediction

Portugal · Primeira Liga

Famalicao#10 · 13 ptsLWLWD

1 - 0Full time

Arouca#5 · 20 ptsWWWDL

36%32%32%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Paulo Moreira 90'

Friday, November 6 · 15:45 (Peru time) · Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho · Referee: Gustavo Fernandes Correia

🎯 Model pick

Famalicao to score

70%

Full data

Famalicao scored in 7 of 10 matches this season
Famalicao average 1.4 goals per match
Sorriso is on fire: 2 goals in his last 5 matches

⚡ Summary

36%Famalicao to win@2.78 42%Over 2.5 goals@2.38 50%Both teams to score@2.00 38%Corners +9.5 (8.8)@2.6055%Cards +4.5 (5.1)@1.821-1Most likely score · 15%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+6⚽ Paulo MoreiraFamalicao

90'🟨 Jose FontánArouca

85'🟨 Espen van EeArouca

78'🔁 Sub: Taichi Fukui · Lee Hyun-ju Arouca

77'🟨 Óscar Aranda SubielaFamalicao

77'🔁 Sub: Näis Djouahra · Gabrijel RukavinaArouca

74'🔁 Sub: Roméo Beney · Gil DiasFamalicao

74'🔁 Sub: Georgios Koutsias · Patricio SalasFamalicao

69'🔁 Sub: Iván Barbero · Dylan NandínArouca

66'🔁 Sub: Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura · Paulo MoreiraFamalicao

66'🔁 Sub: Pedro Santos · Óscar Aranda SubielaFamalicao

56'🔁 Sub: Alfonso Trezza · Brian MansillaArouca

56'🔁 Sub: Mateo Flores · Pablo GozálbezArouca

55'🟨 Pedro SantosFamalicao

48'📺 Alfonso TrezzaArouca

45'🟨 Javi SánchezArouca

Win probability minute by minute

FamalicaoDrawArouca

At kick-off36%32%32%Full time0%100%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

36%Famalicao to win@2.78

32%Draw@3.13

32%Arouca to win@3.11

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score50%

Famalicao or draw68%

Arouca or draw64%

Famalicao to score70%

Arouca to score68%

Most likely scores

1-115%0-012%1-010%0-19%2-18%

Expected goals per the model: Famalicao 1.23 · Arouca 1.15

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.38.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 8.8 in total · Famalicao 4.8 · Arouca 3.9

49%Over 8.5@2.05

38%Over 9.5@2.60

29%Over 10.5@3.41

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 5.1

71%Over 3.5@1.42

55%Over 4.5@1.82

40%Over 5.5@2.51

⏱️ First half

45% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.08

66%Goal in the 1st half@1.51

29%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.41

73%Goal in the 2st half@1.37

⚽ Goals per team

35%Famalicao +1.5@2.87

32%Arouca +1.5@3.13

21%Famalicao to win to nil@4.86

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.71Expected goals (xG)0.22

5Shots on target3

3Saves4

3Offsides1

14Shots7

2Yellow cards3

9Corners2

8Fouls15

0Red cards0

53Possession %47

Goals in the last 10 matches

Famalicao · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals3/10both teams to score2.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Arouca · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score2.3goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

FamalicaoArouca

1.4Goals scored per match1.3

1.4Goals conceded per match0.7

80%Matches with over 1.5 goals50%

60%Matches with over 2.5 goals40%

50%Both teams to score30%

30%Clean sheet60%

30%Matches without scoring20%

4.9Corners won per match3.6

2.1Yellow cards per match2.6

Famalicao: 10 matches · Arouca: 10 matches (all competitions with data).

Famalicao at home · Arouca away

Famalicao at home

0G2E2P

LDDLW

Arouca away

2G2E1P

WDDLW

When do they score and concede?

Famalicao · goals by minute in 10 matches scored conceded

Arouca · goals by minute in 10 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Famalicao

Scores first in 5 of 9 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 1.

Arouca

Scores first in 5 of 9 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

Famalicao

Sorriso · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

O. Aranda · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

G. Koutsias · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Arouca

I. Barbero · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

N. Djouahra · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

D. Nandin · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

3Famalicao to win

4Draws

3Arouca to win

10 matches · 1.8 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-07-22	Famalicao 0-0 Arouca	Friendlies Clubs
2026-03-06	Famalicao 1-0 Arouca	Primeira Liga
2025-10-05	Arouca 1-1 Famalicao	Primeira Liga
2025-04-05	Arouca 1-2 Famalicao	Primeira Liga
2024-11-09	Famalicao 0-0 Arouca	Primeira Liga
2024-02-23	Arouca 3-2 Famalicao	Primeira Liga

Standings

Primeira Liga standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	11	+22	33
2	Benfica	11	+20	28
3	Sporting CP	11	+13	24
4	Santa Clara	11	+8	21
5	Arouca	11	+5	20
6	Academico Viseu	11	+2	20
7	GIL Vicente	11	+2	18
8	SC Braga	11	+2	17
9	Moreirense	11	-5	14
10	Famalicao	11	+1	13
11	Alverca	11	-1	12
12	Estrela	11	-5	10
13	Nacional	11	-8	10
14	Vitória SC	11	-1	9
15	Maritimo	10	-12	8
16	Casa Pia	11	-14	8
17	Rio Ave	11	-15	7
18	Estoril	10	-14	2

More stats

Half-time

Famalicao: 5 days since last match · Arouca: 5 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 23:20 UTC.