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Everton de Vina vs Concepción prediction

Chile · Liga de Primera

Everton de Vina#5 · 40 ptsDLWWL

0 - 2Full time

Concepción#8 · 38 ptsWLDDL

52%29%19%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Aldrix Jara 72'⚽ Jorge Henríquez 84'

Saturday, November 7 · 15:30 (Peru time) · Sausalito · Referee: Nicolas Gamboa Reyes

🎯 Model pick

Everton de Vina to score

82%

Full data

Everton de Vina scored in 18 of 25 matches this season
Everton de Vina average 1.6 goals per match
Medina is on fire: 3 goals in his last 4 matches

⚡ Summary

52%Everton de Vina to win@1.93 50%Over 2.5 goals@1.99 54%Both teams to score@1.84 52%Corners +9.5 (10.0)@1.9448%Cards +4.5 (4.7)@2.081-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+5🟨 Bastián Ismael Tapia GomesEverton de Vina

88'🟨 Alan MedinaEverton de Vina

87'🔁 Sub: Ethan Espinoza · Joaquín MontecinosConcepción

86'🔁 Sub: Julian Alfaro · Bastián Ismael Tapia GomesEverton de Vina

84'⚽ Jorge Henríquez assist Ethan EspinozaConcepción

77'🔁 Sub: Emiliano Ramos · Cristian PalaciosEverton de Vina

77'🔁 Sub: Joaquin Moya · Gustavo CharrupiEverton de Vina

72'🔁 Sub: Ariel Cáceres · Jorge HenríquezConcepción

72'⚽ Aldrix Jara assist Joaquín LarriveyConcepción

67'🟨 Lucas SotoEverton de Vina

64'🟨 Y. RodríguezConcepción

56'🔁 Sub: Braian Aaron Martínez · Nicolás BaezaEverton de Vina

56'🔁 Sub: Óscar Opazo · Lucas SotoEverton de Vina

53'🔁 Sub: Matías Cavalleri · Aldrix JaraConcepción

35'🟨 Misael DávilaConcepción

28'🟨 Ariel CáceresConcepción

Win probability minute by minute

Everton de VinaDrawConcepción

At kick-off52%29%19%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

52%Everton de Vina to win@1.93

29%Draw@3.44

19%Concepción to win@5.25

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score54%

Everton de Vina or draw81%

Concepción or draw48%

Everton de Vina to score82%

Concepción to score63%

Most likely scores

1-113%1-010%2-09%2-19%0-09%

Expected goals per the model: Everton de Vina 1.73 · Concepción 1.00

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.73.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.0 in total · Everton de Vina 5.7 · Concepción 4.3

62%Over 8.5@1.62

52%Over 9.5@1.94

42%Over 10.5@2.40

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.7

65%Over 3.5@1.55

48%Over 4.5@2.08

33%Over 5.5@3.00

⏱️ First half

51% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.39

75%Goal in the 1st half@1.33

41%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.46

74%Goal in the 2st half@1.36

⚽ Goals per team

52%Everton de Vina +1.5@1.94

26%Concepción +1.5@3.78

28%Everton de Vina to win to nil@3.56

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.52Expected goals (xG)0.84

2Shots on target3

1Saves2

4Offsides0

15Shots12

3Yellow cards3

3Corners3

12Fouls8

0Red cards0

60Possession %40

Goals in the last 10 matches

Everton de Vina · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Concepción · last 10 matches

1/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score1.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Everton de VinaConcepción

1.6Goals scored per match1.1

1.3Goals conceded per match1.1

76%Matches with over 1.5 goals69%

56%Matches with over 2.5 goals31%

56%Both teams to score38%

24%Clean sheet35%

28%Matches without scoring27%

6.2Corners won per match3.9

2.0Yellow cards per match2.2

Everton de Vina: 25 matches · Concepción: 26 matches (all competitions with data).

Everton de Vina at home · Concepción away

Everton de Vina at home

4G4E4P

WLWDL

Concepción away

4G1E7P

LDWWL

When do they score and concede?

Everton de Vina · goals by minute in 18 matches scored conceded

Concepción · goals by minute in 18 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Everton de Vina

Scores first in 8 of 17 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 5.

Concepción

Scores first in 12 of 18 matches and wins 9 of them.

Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Everton de Vina

Alan Medina · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Josué Miguel Nehemías Ovalle Aranda · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Braian Aaron Martínez · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Concepción

Jorge Henríquez · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Fausto Grillo · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Ethan Espinoza · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

1Everton de Vina to win

0Draws

0Concepción to win

1 matches · 2.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-18	Concepción 0-2 Everton de Vina	Primera División

Standings

Liga de Primera standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	27	+29	61
2	Universidad de Chile	27	+25	51
3	U. Catolica	27	+19	49
4	Deportes Limache	27	+8	40
5	Everton de Vina	27	+8	40
6	Coquimbo Unido	26	+4	38
7	Palestino	27	+1	38
8	Concepción	27	0	38
9	D. La Serena	27	-2	37
10	Nublense	27	-10	35
11	Huachipato	26	-7	33
12	O'Higgins	27	-10	31
13	A. Italiano	27	-8	30
14	Cobresal	27	-11	27
15	Universidad de Concepcion	27	-27	26
16	Unión La Calera	27	-19	24

More stats

Referee: Nicolas Gamboa Reyes

11 matches · – yellows and – reds per match

Half-time

Everton de Vina: 6 days since last match · Concepción: 4 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 23:00 UTC.