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Estrela vs Benfica prediction
Portugal · Primeira Liga
Estrela
BenficaPre-match probabilities
Sunday, 8 November · 15:30 (Peru time) · Estadio Jose Gomes · Referee: Antonio Nobre
Benfica to win
81%- Benfica have won 5 of their last 5 (W W W W W)
- Away, Benfica are 7W 1D 2L this season
- Estrela in poor form: 4 defeats in their last 5
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Estrela 0.81 · Benfica 2.99
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.80.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.4 in total · Estrela 3.8 · Benfica 5.7
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 2.6 · el árbitro Antonio Nobre saca 1.0 por partido
⏱️ First half
34% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.29
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Estrela: 11 matches · Benfica: 20 matches (all competitions with data).
Estrela at home · Benfica away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 3 of 11 matches and wins 1 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 4.
Scores first in 15 of 20 matches and wins 14 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 3.
Players in form
T. Moustier · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches
Lovro Zvonarek · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
Gianluca Prestianni · 3 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches
Vangelis Pavlidis · 4 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Jhon Durán · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
9 matches · 3.8 goals per match
| 2026-01-25 | Benfica 4-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-08-16 | Estrela 0-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-02-02 | Estrela 2-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-11-23 | Benfica 7-0 Estrela | Taça de Portugal |
| 2024-08-24 | Benfica 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-01-29 | Estrela 1-4 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 11 | +22 | 33 |
| 2 | Benfica | 11 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Nacional | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 11 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | -14 | 2 |
More stats
12 matches · 1.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties
Estrela: 8 days since last match · Benfica: 3 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC.