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D. La Serena vs Palestino prediction

Chile · Liga de Primera

D. La Serena#9 · 37 ptsDWLLW

1 - 0Full time

Palestino#7 · 38 ptsLDDLW

30%33%37%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Diego Rubio 65'

Saturday, November 7 · 13:00 (Peru time) · La Portada · Referee: Jose Cabero

🎯 Model pick

Palestino to score

75%

Full data

Palestino average 1.3 goals per match
D. La Serena concede 1.6 goals per match
Roco is on fire: 2 goals in his last 5 matches

⚡ Summary

37%Palestino to win@2.68 49%Over 2.5 goals@2.04 57%Both teams to score@1.77 49%Corners +9.5 (9.7)@2.0661%Cards +4.5 (5.5)@1.651-1Most likely score · 15%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+9📺 Vicente EspinozaPalestino

90'+4🔁 Sub: Gonzalo Escalante · Milovan Joseph Velásquez BlasetD. La Serena

84'🔁 Sub: Lucas Alarcon · Matías PérezD. La Serena

84'🔁 Sub: Jason León · Martin ArayaPalestino

84'🔁 Sub: Felipe Chamorro · Alexander OrozD. La Serena

74'🔁 Sub: Nicolás Meza · Marcelo EggelPalestino

74'🔁 Sub: Sebastian Gallegos · Joe AbrigoPalestino

65'⚽ Diego RubioD. La Serena

65'🔁 Sub: Diego Rubio · Ángelo HenríquezD. La Serena

65'🔁 Sub: Yahir Salazar · F. DenmarkD. La Serena

63'🔁 Sub: Ronnie Fernández · Gonzalo TapiaPalestino

63'🔁 Sub: Francisco Montes · Bryan CarrascoPalestino

36'🟨 Sebastian GallegosPalestino

31'🟨 Jose BizamaPalestino

8'🟨 Nicolás MezaPalestino

Win probability minute by minute

D. La SerenaDrawPalestino

At kick-off30%33%37%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

30%D. La Serena to win@3.31

33%Draw@3.08

37%Palestino to win@2.68

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score57%

D. La Serena or draw63%

Palestino or draw70%

D. La Serena to score72%

Palestino to score75%

Most likely scores

1-115%0-010%0-18%1-28%1-07%

Expected goals per the model: D. La Serena 1.27 · Palestino 1.42

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.69.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.7 in total · D. La Serena 4.4 · Palestino 5.4

59%Over 8.5@1.69

49%Over 9.5@2.06

39%Over 10.5@2.57

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 5.5

75%Over 3.5@1.33

61%Over 4.5@1.65

46%Over 5.5@2.19

⏱️ First half

48% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.30

73%Goal in the 1st half@1.38

37%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.68

75%Goal in the 2st half@1.33

⚽ Goals per team

36%D. La Serena +1.5@2.76

42%Palestino +1.5@2.41

15%D. La Serena to win to nil@6.67

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.57Expected goals (xG)0.92

4Shots on target1

1Saves3

19Shots13

11Corners5

0Offsides2

0Yellow cards3

9Fouls8

0Red cards0

52Possession %48

Goals in the last 10 matches

D. La Serena · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Palestino · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

D. La SerenaPalestino

1.5Goals scored per match1.3

1.6Goals conceded per match1.3

73%Matches with over 1.5 goals67%

58%Matches with over 2.5 goals45%

58%Both teams to score55%

27%Clean sheet21%

23%Matches without scoring36%

4.4Corners won per match5.0

2.7Yellow cards per match2.3

D. La Serena: 26 matches · Palestino: 33 matches (all competitions with data).

D. La Serena at home · Palestino away

D. La Serena at home

5G4E4P

WLWDL

Palestino away

5G2E10P

LDLWL

When do they score and concede?

D. La Serena · goals by minute in 18 matches scored conceded

Palestino · goals by minute in 24 matches scored conceded

The first goal

D. La Serena

Scores first in 10 of 16 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 3.

Palestino

Scores first in 7 of 21 matches and wins 7 of them.

Concedes first in 14 and avoids defeat in 5.

Players in form

D. La Serena

Matías Marín · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Felipe Chamorro · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Matías Pinto · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Palestino

Enzo Roco · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Joe Abrigo · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

Gonzalo Tapia · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

3D. La Serena to win

2Draws

4Palestino to win

9 matches · 4.4 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-16	Palestino 5-1 D. La Serena	Primera División
2025-11-29	D. La Serena 0-3 Palestino	Primera División
2025-06-14	Palestino 2-1 D. La Serena	Primera División
2022-10-23	Palestino 5-0 D. La Serena	Primera División
2022-05-14	D. La Serena 0-0 Palestino	Primera División
2021-10-25	Palestino 3-3 D. La Serena	Primera División

Standings

Liga de Primera standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	27	+29	61
2	Universidad de Chile	27	+25	51
3	U. Catolica	27	+19	49
4	Deportes Limache	27	+8	40
5	Everton de Vina	27	+8	40
6	Coquimbo Unido	26	+4	38
7	Palestino	27	+1	38
8	Concepción	27	0	38
9	D. La Serena	27	-2	37
10	Nublense	27	-10	35
11	Huachipato	26	-7	33
12	O'Higgins	27	-10	31
13	A. Italiano	27	-8	30
14	Cobresal	27	-11	27
15	Universidad de Concepcion	27	-27	26
16	Unión La Calera	27	-19	24

More stats

Referee: Jose Cabero

11 matches · – yellows and – reds per match

Half-time

D. La Serena: 6 days since last match · Palestino: 4 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 20:30 UTC.