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CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps prediction

United States · Major League Soccer

CF MontrealDLLDL

0 - 2Full time

Vancouver WhitecapsWWLWD

18%26%56%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Cheikh Sabaly 50'⚽ M. Gherasimencov 83'

Saturday, November 7 · 16:00 (Peru time) · Saputo Stadium · Referee: Marcos De Oliveira

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

83%

Full data

2+ goals in 28 of 33 CF Montreal matches
Also in 26 of 33 Vancouver Whitecaps matches
Head to head: 3.2 goals per match

⚡ Summary

56%Vancouver Whitecaps to win@1.78 61%Over 2.5 goals@1.65 63%Both teams to score@1.59 48%Corners +9.5 (9.6)@2.0947%Cards +4.5 (4.6)@2.141-1Most likely score · 12%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

86'🔁 Sub: Oliver Love Larraz · Sebastián RamírezVancouver Whitecaps

83'⚽ M. Gherasimencov assist Bruno CaicedoVancouver Whitecaps

74'🟨 Luca PetrassoCF Montreal

71'🔁 Sub: Ralph Priso · Tristan BlackmonVancouver Whitecaps

66'🔁 Sub: Olger Escobar · Fabian HerbersCF Montreal

66'🔁 Sub: Daniel Rios · Alexis SanchezCF Montreal

66'🔁 Sub: Dawid Bugaj · Brayan CeballosCF Montreal

63'🔁 Sub: Ryan Gauld · Thomas MüllerVancouver Whitecaps

62'🟨 Ralph PrisoVancouver Whitecaps

50'⚽ Cheikh SabalyVancouver Whitecaps

45'🟨 Victor LoturiCF Montreal

45'🔁 Sub: Gennadiy Synchuk · Noah StreitCF Montreal

45'🔁 Sub: Yadaly Diaby · Bruno CaicedoVancouver Whitecaps

45'🔁 Sub: Édier Ocampo · Rui ModestoVancouver Whitecaps

42'🟨 Édier OcampoVancouver Whitecaps

25'🟨 M. GherasimencovVancouver Whitecaps

Win probability minute by minute

CF MontrealDrawVancouver Whitecaps

At kick-off18%26%56%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

18%CF Montreal to win@5.70

26%Draw@3.79

56%Vancouver Whitecaps to win@1.78

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score63%

CF Montreal or draw44%

Vancouver Whitecaps or draw82%

CF Montreal to score68%

Vancouver Whitecaps to score87%

Most likely scores

1-112%1-29%0-28%0-18%2-26%

Expected goals per the model: CF Montreal 1.15 · Vancouver Whitecaps 2.08

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.23.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.6 in total · CF Montreal 4.3 · Vancouver Whitecaps 5.3

58%Over 8.5@1.72

48%Over 9.5@2.09

38%Over 10.5@2.63

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.6

63%Over 3.5@1.58

47%Over 4.5@2.14

32%Over 5.5@3.12

⏱️ First half

46% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.48

77%Goal in the 1st half@1.29

44%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.29

83%Goal in the 2st half@1.21

⚽ Goals per team

32%CF Montreal +1.5@3.13

62%Vancouver Whitecaps +1.5@1.63

7%CF Montreal to win to nil@14.25

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.92Expected goals (xG)1.99

3Shots on target8

6Saves3

2Offsides0

8Shots16

2Yellow cards3

4Corners5

15Fouls15

0Red cards0

36Possession %64

Goals in the last 10 matches

CF Montreal · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score2.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Vancouver Whitecaps · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.2goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

CF MontrealVancouver Whitecaps

1.1Goals scored per match2.2

2.0Goals conceded per match1.0

85%Matches with over 1.5 goals79%

61%Matches with over 2.5 goals61%

52%Both teams to score52%

12%Clean sheet36%

39%Matches without scoring18%

5.2Corners won per match6.0

2.4Yellow cards per match2.0

CF Montreal: 33 matches · Vancouver Whitecaps: 33 matches (all competitions with data).

CF Montreal at home · Vancouver Whitecaps away

CF Montreal at home

4G5E7P

LLWLL

Vancouver Whitecaps away

7G5E4P

LWDDL

When do they score and concede?

CF Montreal · goals by minute in 27 matches scored conceded

Vancouver Whitecaps · goals by minute in 27 matches scored conceded

The first goal

CF Montreal

Scores first in 13 of 26 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 13 and avoids defeat in 3.

Vancouver Whitecaps

Scores first in 13 of 25 matches and wins 11 of them.

Concedes first in 12 and avoids defeat in 6.

Players in form

CF Montreal

Daniel Rios · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

G. Synchuk · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

N. Streit · 0 goles, 1 assists in 3 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps

Ryan Gauld · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Brian White · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Bruno Caicedo · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

3CF Montreal to win

2Draws

5Vancouver Whitecaps to win

10 matches · 3.2 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-09-16	CF Montreal 2-1 Vancouver Whitecaps	Canadian Championship
2026-09-03	Vancouver Whitecaps 1-1 CF Montreal	Canadian Championship
2025-03-09	Vancouver Whitecaps 2-0 CF Montreal	Major League Soccer
2024-07-06	CF Montreal 1-1 Vancouver Whitecaps	Major League Soccer
2023-06-08	Vancouver Whitecaps 2-1 CF Montreal	Canadian Championship
2023-04-02	Vancouver Whitecaps 5-0 CF Montreal	Major League Soccer

More stats

Half-time

CF Montreal: 7 days since last match · Vancouver Whitecaps: 6 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 23:30 UTC.