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Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv prediction

Bulgaria · First League

Botev Vratsa#13 · 10 ptsLDLDD

1 - 2Full time

Lokomotiv Plovdiv#11 · 12 ptsLDDDL

43%33%24%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Christ Longville 37'⚽ D. Mrankov 46'⚽ Martin Smolenski 49'

Saturday, November 7 · 06:30 (Peru time) · Hristo Botev Stadium · Referee: Piskov·Gero

🎯 Model pick

Botev Vratsa or draw

76%

Full data

At home, Botev Vratsa are 1W 2D 2L this season

⚡ Summary

43%Botev Vratsa to win@2.31 32%Over 2.5 goals@3.11 41%Both teams to score@2.42 48%Corners +9.5 (9.7)@2.0960%Cards +4.5 (5.5)@1.660-0Most likely score · 15%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'🟨 Botev Vratsa

84'🔁 Sub: Julian Iliev · Miha·TrdanLokomotiv Plovdiv

75'🔁 Sub: Christ Longville · sevi idrizLokomotiv Plovdiv

73'🔁 Sub: Martin Detelinov Petkov · Daniel GenovBotev Vratsa

73'🔁 Sub: Martin Smolenski · Vladislav NaydenovBotev Vratsa

55'🔁 Sub: Milan petrovic · brito matheusLokomotiv Plovdiv

55'🔁 Sub: D. Mrankov · junior burbanLokomotiv Plovdiv

55'🔁 Sub: Julien Lamy · Anton FaseLokomotiv Plovdiv

54'🟨 Julien LamyLokomotiv Plovdiv

52'🟨 Todor PavlovLokomotiv Plovdiv

49'⚽ Martin SmolenskiBotev Vratsa

46'⚽ D. MrankovLokomotiv Plovdiv

37'⚽ Christ LongvilleLokomotiv Plovdiv

Win probability minute by minute

Botev VratsaDrawLokomotiv Plovdiv

At kick-off43%33%24%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

43%Botev Vratsa to win@2.31

33%Draw@3.05

24%Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win@4.19

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score41%

Botev Vratsa or draw76%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw57%

Botev Vratsa to score69%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score55%

Most likely scores

0-015%1-015%1-114%0-110%2-09%

Expected goals per the model: Botev Vratsa 1.19 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.81

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.00.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.7 in total · Botev Vratsa 5.1 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4.6

58%Over 8.5@1.72

48%Over 9.5@2.09

38%Over 10.5@2.62

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 5.5

75%Over 3.5@1.33

60%Over 4.5@1.66

45%Over 5.5@2.21

⏱️ First half

50% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.00

63%Goal in the 1st half@1.59

26%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.81

63%Goal in the 2st half@1.58

⚽ Goals per team

33%Botev Vratsa +1.5@3.00

19%Lokomotiv Plovdiv +1.5@5.13

29%Botev Vratsa to win to nil@3.40

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

57Possession %43

2Shots on target3

1Yellow cards3

6Corners1

0Red cards0

13Shots4

Goals in the last 10 matches

Botev Vratsa · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score2.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv · last 10 matches

3/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score1.9goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Botev VratsaLokomotiv Plovdiv

0.8Goals scored per match0.5

1.7Goals conceded per match1.3

69%Matches with over 1.5 goals62%

46%Matches with over 2.5 goals23%

46%Both teams to score31%

15%Clean sheet15%

46%Matches without scoring62%

5.4Corners won per match4.0

2.4Yellow cards per match2.8

Botev Vratsa: 13 matches · Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 13 matches (all competitions with data).

Botev Vratsa at home · Lokomotiv Plovdiv away

Botev Vratsa at home

1G2E2P

LDWLD

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away

0G1E5P

DLLLL

When do they score and concede?

Botev Vratsa · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

Lokomotiv Plovdiv · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Botev Vratsa

Scores first in 3 of 12 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 2.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Scores first in 5 of 12 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 0.

Players in form

Botev Vratsa

J. Gallegos · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

K. Hadji · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

S. Sanyang · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

R. Leijten · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

P. Umarbaev · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

J. Burban · 0 goles, 1 assists in 3 matches

Head to head

3Botev Vratsa to win

2Draws

5Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win

10 matches · 2.1 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-03-22	Botev Vratsa 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv	First League
2025-10-17	Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-0 Botev Vratsa	First League
2025-05-15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-3 Botev Vratsa	First League
2025-03-01	Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Botev Vratsa	First League
2024-10-18	Botev Vratsa 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv	First League
2023-11-25	Botev Vratsa 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv	First League

Standings

First League standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia	14	+23	34
2	Levski Sofia	13	+17	32
3	Ludogorets	13	+15	30
4	CSKA 1948	14	+17	29
5	Botev Plovdiv	14	+2	23
6	Arda Kardzhali	14	-2	21
7	Spartak Varna	14	-10	16
8	Slavia Sofia	14	0	14
9	Cherno More Varna	14	-8	13
10	Dunav Ruse	14	-7	12
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	14	-10	12
12	Septemvri Sofia	14	-13	11
13	Botev Vratsa	14	-13	10
14	Lokomotiv Sofia	14	-11	9

More stats

Referee: Piskov·Gero

1 matches · 4.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties

Half-time

Botev Vratsa: 4 days since last match · Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 6 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 14:00 UTC.