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Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse prediction

Bulgaria · First League

Botev Plovdiv#5 · 23 ptsWLWWW

1 - 1Full time

Dunav Ruse#10 · 12 ptsLWWDL

65%24%11%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Ehije Ukaki 84'⚽ Ibrahim Keita 88'

Friday, November 6 · 12:15 (Peru time) · Hristo Botev Stadium · Referee: Vasil Minev

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

79%

Partial data

2+ goals in 10 of 13 Botev Plovdiv matches
Also in 11 of 13 Dunav Ruse matches
Head to head: 3.6 goals per match

⚡ Summary

65%Botev Plovdiv to win@1.53 55%Over 2.5 goals@1.83 49%Both teams to score@2.06 48%Corners +9.5 (9.7)@2.0645%Cards +4.5 (4.5)@2.242-0Most likely score · 12%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+3🔁 Sub: Elisee Sou · Vladan VidakovićDunav Ruse

90'🔁 Sub: jordan louis saint · Kyriakos AntoniouDunav Ruse

88'⚽ Ibrahim KeitaDunav Ruse

84'⚽ Ehije UkakiBotev Plovdiv

81'🟨 Stojan PredevDunav Ruse

79'🔁 Sub: Asen Chandarov · Georgi MilanovBotev Plovdiv

73'🟨 Samuel KaluBotev Plovdiv

70'🟨 dimitar todorovDunav Ruse

69'🔁 Sub: Kristiyan Boychev · Stojan PredevDunav Ruse

69'🔁 Sub: Alexander Valiño Navasal · Ibrahim KeitaDunav Ruse

66'🟨 Alexander Valiño NavasalDunav Ruse

63'🔁 Sub: Mauro Rodrigues · alberto tajero saidoBotev Plovdiv

46'🔁 Sub: velian vidolov · Carlos MeottiBotev Plovdiv

23'🟨 Mauro RodriguesBotev Plovdiv

Win probability minute by minute

Botev PlovdivDrawDunav Ruse

At kick-off65%24%11%Full time0%100%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

65%Botev Plovdiv to win@1.53

24%Draw@4.24

11%Dunav Ruse to win@9.06

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score49%

Botev Plovdiv or draw89%

Dunav Ruse or draw35%

Botev Plovdiv to score87%

Dunav Ruse to score55%

Most likely scores

2-012%1-111%1-011%2-19%3-08%

Expected goals per the model: Botev Plovdiv 2.12 · Dunav Ruse 0.81

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.93.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.7 in total · Botev Plovdiv 5.6 · Dunav Ruse 4.1

59%Over 8.5@1.70

48%Over 9.5@2.06

39%Over 10.5@2.59

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.5

61%Over 3.5@1.63

45%Over 4.5@2.24

30%Over 5.5@3.32

⏱️ First half

43% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.25

71%Goal in the 1st half@1.40

36%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.81

81%Goal in the 2st half@1.23

⚽ Goals per team

63%Botev Plovdiv +1.5@1.60

19%Dunav Ruse +1.5@5.13

37%Botev Plovdiv to win to nil@2.68

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

8Shots on target4

67Possession %33

0Red cards0

2Yellow cards3

4Corners2

23Shots6

Goals in the last 10 matches

Botev Plovdiv · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score3.1goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Dunav Ruse · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score2.9goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Botev PlovdivDunav Ruse

1.7Goals scored per match1.1

1.5Goals conceded per match1.7

77%Matches with over 1.5 goals85%

54%Matches with over 2.5 goals62%

46%Both teams to score62%

31%Clean sheet8%

23%Matches without scoring31%

4.0Corners won per match2.3

2.2Yellow cards per match2.1

Botev Plovdiv: 13 matches · Dunav Ruse: 13 matches (all competitions with data).

Botev Plovdiv at home · Dunav Ruse away

Botev Plovdiv at home

4G1E1P

WWLWW

Dunav Ruse away

2G0E4P

WLLWL

When do they score and concede?

Botev Plovdiv · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

Dunav Ruse · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Botev Plovdiv

Scores first in 8 of 13 matches and wins 7 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 1.

Dunav Ruse

Scores first in 4 of 13 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

Botev Plovdiv

Mauro Rodrigues · 2 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches

mascote · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Samuel Kalu · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Dunav Ruse

J. Saint-Louis · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

K. Boychev · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

A. Valino · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

4Botev Plovdiv to win

1Draws

0Dunav Ruse to win

5 matches · 3.6 goals per match

Recent meetings
2020-07-03	Botev Plovdiv 3-1 Dunav Ruse	First League
2019-11-06	Dunav Ruse 1-2 Botev Plovdiv	First League
2019-07-21	Botev Plovdiv 3-1 Dunav Ruse	First League
2019-03-02	Dunav Ruse 1-1 Botev Plovdiv	First League
2018-10-06	Botev Plovdiv 4-1 Dunav Ruse	First League

Standings

First League standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia	14	+23	34
2	Levski Sofia	13	+17	32
3	Ludogorets	13	+15	30
4	CSKA 1948	14	+17	29
5	Botev Plovdiv	14	+2	23
6	Arda Kardzhali	14	-2	21
7	Spartak Varna	14	-10	16
8	Slavia Sofia	14	0	14
9	Cherno More Varna	14	-8	13
10	Dunav Ruse	14	-7	12
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	14	-10	12
12	Septemvri Sofia	14	-13	11
13	Botev Vratsa	14	-13	10
14	Lokomotiv Sofia	14	-11	9

More stats

Half-time

Botev Plovdiv: 6 days since last match · Dunav Ruse: 6 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 19:50 UTC.