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Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction
Portugal · Primeira Liga
Alverca
Casa PiaPre-match probabilities
Saturday, November 7 · 13:00 (Peru time) · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · Referee: Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho
Alverca or draw
83%- At home, Alverca are 1W 2D 2L this season
- Casa Pia in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5
- #11 in the table, Casa Pia #16
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Alverca 1.65 · Casa Pia 0.87
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.52.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.3 in total · Alverca 5.3 · Casa Pia 4.0
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 5.0
⏱️ First half
39% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.99
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Alverca: 10 matches · Casa Pia: 10 matches (all competitions with data).
Alverca at home · Casa Pia away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 5 of 10 matches and wins 3 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 1.
Scores first in 2 of 9 matches and wins 1 of them.
Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
D. Camara · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Chiquinho · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches
D. Spencer · 0 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches
Lawrence Ofori · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Henrique Araújo · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
S. Clua · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
3 matches · 3.7 goals per match
| 2026-04-12 | Alverca 3-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-11-29 | Casa Pia 0-2 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-08-02 | Alverca 2-3 Casa Pia | Friendlies Clubs |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 11 | +22 | 33 |
| 2 | Benfica | 11 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Nacional | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 11 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | -14 | 2 |
More stats
Alverca: 4 days since last match · Casa Pia: 7 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 20:30 UTC.