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Wrexham vs Wolves prediction

England · Championship
Wrexham badgeWrexham#15 · 18 ptsWLLWL
1 - 1Full time
Wolves badgeWolves#4 · 28 ptsWWWDW

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Adam Armstrong 25'⚽ Lewis O'Brien 27'

Saturday, 7 November · 07:30 (Peru time) · Racecourse Ground · Referee: Andrew Kitchen

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Wolves or draw

78%
Partial data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

86'🟨 Matty JamesWrexham
85'🔁 Sub: Fer López · Jean-Ricner BellegardeWolves
85'🔁 Sub: Adam Armstrong · Sean NeaveWolves
81'🔁 Sub: Issa Kabore · Danny ImrayWrexham
77'🔁 Sub: Kieffer Moore · B. CadamarteriWrexham
77'🔁 Sub: Benjamin Whiteman · Matty JamesWrexham
77'🔁 Sub: George Dobson · Ben SheafWrexham
75'🔁 Sub: Mateus Mane · Thomas DoyleWolves
75'🔁 Sub: Toti Gomes · Hugo BuenoWolves
64'🔁 Sub: Rodrigo Gomes · Rafiki Said AhamadaWolves
64'🔁 Sub: Oliver Rathbone · George ThomasonWrexham
61'🟨 AndréWolves
61'🟨 Philip John ParkinsonWrexham
54'🟨 Jacques EkomiéWrexham
30'🟨 Toti GomesWolves
27'⚽ Lewis O'Brien assist Issa KaboreWrexham
25'⚽ Adam Armstrong assist Yacouba Nasser DjigaWolves

Win probability minute by minute

WrexhamDrawWolves
At kick-off22%32%46%Full time0%100%0%
0%25%50%75%100% ⚽⚽0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

22%Wrexham to win@4.52
32%Draw@3.14
46%Wolves to win@2.17
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Both teams to score53%
Wrexham or draw54%
Wolves or draw78%
Wrexham to score63%
Wolves to score77%

Most likely scores

1-115%0-011%0-111%1-29%0-29%

Expected goals per the model: Wrexham 1.00 · Wolves 1.51

How many goals will there be?

8%0 goals20%1 goals26%2 goals21%3 goals13%4 goals11%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.51.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.8 in total · Wrexham 4.4 · Wolves 5.5

60%Over 8.5@1.67
50%Over 9.5@2.02
40%Over 10.5@2.52
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.5 · el árbitro Andrew Kitchen saca 3.8 por partido

44%Over 3.5@2.29
28%Over 4.5@3.60
16%Over 5.5@6.12

⏱️ First half

45% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.12

67%Goal in the 1st half@1.48
31%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.24
75%Goal in the 2st half@1.33

⚽ Goals per team

26%Wrexham +1.5@3.78
45%Wolves +1.5@2.24
12%Wrexham to win to nil@8.47

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.21Expected goals (xG)1.47
3Shots on target5
4Saves2
1Offsides0
6Shots21
2Yellow cards2
2Corners7
12Fouls13
0Red cards0
40Possession %60

Goals in the last 10 matches

Wrexham · last 10 matches
4/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.8goals per match
2.5vs Burnley: 1-1 1-1 ambosen West Ham: 0-6 0-6 vs Southampton: 2-1 2-1 ambosen Derby: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs West Brom: 1-2 1-2 ambosvs Preston: 4-1 4-1 ambosen Blackburn: 0-2 0-2 en Sheffield Utd: 0-1 0-1 vs Middlesbrough: 2-0 2-0 vs Wolves: 1-1 1-1 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Wolves · last 10 matches
4/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.1goals per match
2.5en Sheffield Utd: 1-0 1-0 vs West Brom: 1-0 1-0 en Middlesbrough: 0-1 0-1 vs Bolton: 1-3 1-3 ambosen Burnley: 2-1 2-1 ambosvs Portsmouth: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Watford: 1-0 1-0 vs Cardiff: 3-0 3-0 en Bristol City: 2-1 2-1 ambosat Wrexham: 1-1 1-1 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

WrexhamWolves
1.2Goals scored per match1.8
1.4Goals conceded per match1.2
86%Matches with over 1.5 goals71%
43%Matches with over 2.5 goals64%
57%Both teams to score64%
21%Clean sheet29%
29%Matches without scoring7%
4.9Corners won per match6.6
1.3Yellow cards per match1.9

Wrexham: 14 matches · Wolves: 14 matches (all competitions with data).

Wrexham at home · Wolves away

Wrexham at home
3G2E2P
WWLWD
Wolves away
4G1E2P
WWLWD

When do they score and concede?

Wrexham · goals by minute in 14 matches scored conceded
130-152316-303331-454246-604261-753676-90
Wolves · goals by minute in 14 matches scored conceded
410-153416-304431-454346-604261-756376-90

The first goal

Wrexham

Scores first in 6 of 13 matches and wins 4 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 3.

Wolves

Scores first in 8 of 14 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 3.

Players in form

Wrexham

Kieffer Moore · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

B. Whiteman · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

Oliver Rathbone · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Wolves

Sean Neave · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

Fer López · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

Adam Armstrong · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches

Standings

Championship standings
#TeamPGDPts
1Birmingham15+1429
2Middlesbrough15+1129
3Stoke City15+629
4Wolves15+828
5West Brom15+828
6Swansea15+426
7Southampton15+1424
8QPR15+624
9West Ham15+1423
10Sheffield Utd15+222
11Portsmouth15+222
12Norwich15+821
13Blackburn15-121
14Cardiff15018
15Wrexham15-218
16Millwall15-418
17Bristol City15-818
18Bolton15-917
19Charlton15-1017
20Watford15-1015
21Lincoln15-1115
22Burnley15-910
23Derby15-1610
24Preston15-178

More stats

Referee: Andrew Kitchen

20 matches · 3.5 yellows and 0.25 reds per match · 0.13 penalties

Half-time

Wrexham: 2 days since last match · Wolves: 2 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 15:00 UTC.

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