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Watford vs Middlesbrough prediction
England · Championship
Watford
MiddlesbroughPre-match probabilities
Saturday, 7 November · 10:00 (Peru time) · Vicarage Road · Referee: Gavin Ward
Over 1.5 goals
83%- 2+ goals in 10 of 14 Watford matches
- Also in 12 of 14 Middlesbrough matches
- Head to head: 3.0 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Watford 1.01 · Middlesbrough 2.23
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.24.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 10.5 in total · Watford 4.1 · Middlesbrough 6.4
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.7 · el árbitro Gavin Ward saca 3.6 por partido
⏱️ First half
50% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.62
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Watford: 14 matches · Middlesbrough: 14 matches (all competitions with data).
Watford at home · Middlesbrough away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 6 of 14 matches and wins 3 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 1.
Scores first in 9 of 14 matches and wins 6 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 4.
Players in form
Myron Boadu · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Iker Bravo · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Stephy Mavididi · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches
will lankshear · 6 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Amario Cozier-Duberry · 1 gol, 4 assists in 5 matches
Sebastian Berhalter · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 3.0 goals per match
| 2026-04-25 | Middlesbrough 5-1 Watford | Championship |
| 2025-11-01 | Watford 3-0 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 2025-02-15 | Middlesbrough 0-1 Watford | Championship |
| 2024-10-05 | Watford 2-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 2024-05-04 | Middlesbrough 3-1 Watford | Championship |
| 2023-09-30 | Watford 2-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | -17 | 8 |
More stats
17 matches · 3.6 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.29 penalties
Watford: 3 days since last match · Middlesbrough: 2 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 17:30 UTC.