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Vitoria vs Fluminense prediction

Brazil · Brasileirão

Vitoria#15 · 38 ptsLDDLW

0 - 3Full time

Fluminense#4 · 57 ptsWLWLL

33%35%32%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ J. Savarino 15'⚽ A. Canobbio 42'⚽ R. Castillo 90'

Friday, 6 November · 18:00 (Peru time) · Estádio Manoel Barradas · Referee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima

🎯 Model pick

Vitoria or draw

68%

Full data

At home, Vitoria are 10W 2D 4L this season
Fluminense in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5
Head to head: 2W 5D 3L for Vitoria

⚡ Summary

35%Draw@2.87 39%Over 2.5 goals@2.56 47%Both teams to score@2.12 45%Corners +9.5 (9.3)@2.2445%Cards +4.5 (4.5)@2.231-1Most likely score · 16%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'⚽ R. Castillo assist NonatoFluminense

88'🟨 Lucas SilvaVitoria

86'🔁 Sub: A. Canobbio · Y. SoteldoFluminense

84'🔁 Sub: Matheusinho · R. RamosVitoria

80'🔁 Sub: Guga · Samuel XavierFluminense

80'🔁 Sub: J. Savarino · K. SernaFluminense

79'🔁 Sub: Emmanuel Martinez · Ze VitorVitoria

78'🔁 Sub: Rene · Alex BrunoVitoria

69'🔁 Sub: Hulk · R. CastilloFluminense

69'🔁 Sub: L. Acosta · PH GansoFluminense

63'🔁 Sub: Matheuzinho · Renato KayzerVitoria

46'🔁 Sub: Caique Goncalves · Lucas SilvaVitoria

44'🟨 MatheusinhoVitoria

42'⚽ A. Canobbio assist NonatoFluminense

15'⚽ J. Savarino assist A. CanobbioFluminense

Win probability minute by minute

VitoriaDrawFluminense

At kick-off33%35%32%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

33%Vitoria to win@3.00

35%Draw@2.87

32%Fluminense to win@3.15

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Vitoria or draw68%

Fluminense or draw67%

Vitoria to score68%

Fluminense to score67%

Most likely scores

1-116%0-013%1-010%0-110%2-17%

Expected goals per the model: Vitoria 1.15 · Fluminense 1.12

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.27.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.3 in total · Vitoria 4.6 · Fluminense 4.8

55%Over 8.5@1.82

45%Over 9.5@2.24

35%Over 10.5@2.85

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.5 · el árbitro R. Pereira saca 4.1 por partido

62%Over 3.5@1.62

45%Over 4.5@2.23

30%Over 5.5@3.29

⏱️ First half

37% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.85

57%Goal in the 1st half@1.75

21%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@4.79

76%Goal in the 2st half@1.32

⚽ Goals per team

32%Vitoria +1.5@3.13

31%Fluminense +1.5@3.24

20%Vitoria to win to nil@5.08

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

5Shots on target6

10Shots12

10Fouls19

9Corners6

1Offsides0

43Possession %57

1Yellow cards0

4Saves5

0.77Expected goals (xG)1.29

Goals in the last 10 matches

Vitoria · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Fluminense · last 10 matches

8/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

VitoriaFluminense

1.1Goals scored per match1.4

1.4Goals conceded per match1.2

82%Matches with over 1.5 goals80%

39%Matches with over 2.5 goals53%

42%Both teams to score69%

33%Clean sheet22%

30%Matches without scoring16%

4.5Corners won per match4.5

2.0Yellow cards per match2.6

Vitoria: 33 matches · Fluminense: 45 matches (all competitions with data).

Vitoria at home · Fluminense away

Vitoria at home

10G2E4P

DWLWL

Fluminense away

4G9E9P

LWLWL

When do they score and concede?

Vitoria · goals by minute in 23 matches scored conceded

Fluminense · goals by minute in 32 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Vitoria

Scores first in 10 of 21 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 11 and avoids defeat in 2.

Fluminense

Scores first in 14 of 30 matches and wins 9 of them.

Concedes first in 16 and avoids defeat in 8.

Players in form

Vitoria

Matheuzinho · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Erick · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Renato Kayzer · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Fluminense

Hercules · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Guga · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

2Vitoria to win

5Draws

3Fluminense to win

10 matches · 2.5 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-09	Fluminense 2-2 Vitoria	Serie A
2025-09-20	Vitoria 0-1 Fluminense	Serie A
2025-04-20	Fluminense 1-1 Vitoria	Serie A
2024-10-26	Vitoria 2-1 Fluminense	Serie A
2024-06-27	Fluminense 0-1 Vitoria	Serie A
2018-09-06	Fluminense 0-0 Vitoria	Serie A

Standings

Brasileirão standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	+42	76
2	Palmeiras	34	+39	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	+7	60
4	Fluminense	34	+13	57
5	Atlético Paranaense	34	+8	54
6	Bahia	34	+5	53
7	Atlético-MG	34	+4	50
8	RB Bragantino	34	+5	47
9	Santos	34	+1	47
10	São Paulo	34	0	44
11	Botafogo	34	-7	42
12	Coritiba	34	-11	42
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	-7	41
14	Mirassol	34	-9	40
15	Vitoria	34	-16	38
16	International	34	-4	38
17	Corinthians	34	-6	37
18	Grêmio	34	-9	37
19	Remo	34	-20	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	-35	21

More stats

Referee: R. Pereira

12 matches · 4.0 yellows and 0.13 reds per match · 0.50 penalties

Half-time

Vitoria: 6 days since last match · Fluminense: 9 days

Vitoria absences

E. Britez, Camutanga, Dudu, Edu, Fabiano, Matheusinho, Nathan Mendes, Ramon, Riccieli

Fluminense absences

Alisson, Ignacio, John Kennedy, Martinelli, Matheus Reis, J. Millan

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 01:30 UTC.