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Venezia vs Udinese prediction

Italy · Serie A
Venezia badgeVenezia#19 · 6 ptsLLLWL
2 - 1Full time
Udinese badgeUdinese#20 · 5 ptsLDLLL

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Toma Bašić 53'⚽ Matias Moreno 57' (p.p.)⚽ Enrique Pérez Muñoz 65'

Friday, November 6 · 14:45 (Peru time) · Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo · Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

75%
Partial data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+5🟨 Matteo PalmaUdinese
88'🔁 Sub: Jurgen Ekkelenkamp · Vakoun BayoUdinese
88'🔁 Sub: Oumar Solet · Lennon MillerUdinese
85'🔁 Sub: Toma Bašić · Thorir Johann HelgasonVenezia
84'🔁 Sub: John Yeboah · Lion LauberbachVenezia
75'🔁 Sub: Nicolo Zaniolo · Unai GómezUdinese
74'🔁 Sub: James Abankwah · Christian KabaseleUdinese
70'🔁 Sub: Pasquale Mazzocchi · Ridgeciano HapsVenezia
65'⚽ Enrique Pérez Muñoz assist Pasquale MazzocchiVenezia
64'🔁 Sub: Jakub Piotrowski · Giorgi ChakvetadzeUdinese
57'⚽ Matias Moreno (own goal)Udinese
53'⚽ Toma Bašić assist Antoine HainautVenezia
51'🟨 Pasquale MazzocchiVenezia

Win probability minute by minute

VeneziaDrawUdinese
At kick-off32%33%35%Full time100%0%0%
0%25%50%75%100% ⚽⚽⚽0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

32%Venezia to win@3.15
33%Draw@3.02
35%Udinese to win@2.84
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Both teams to score58%
Venezia or draw65%
Udinese or draw68%
Venezia to score72%
Udinese to score74%

Most likely scores

1-115%0-010%0-18%1-28%1-07%

Expected goals per the model: Venezia 1.29 · Udinese 1.37

How many goals will there be?

7%0 goals19%1 goals25%2 goals22%3 goals15%4 goals13%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.66.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.4 in total · Venezia 4.5 · Udinese 4.8

56%Over 8.5@1.80
45%Over 9.5@2.21
36%Over 10.5@2.81
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.5 · el árbitro Juan Luca Sacchi saca 3.0 por partido

44%Over 3.5@2.29
28%Over 4.5@3.60
16%Over 5.5@6.12

⏱️ First half

48% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.27

72%Goal in the 1st half@1.39
36%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.77
75%Goal in the 2st half@1.33

⚽ Goals per team

37%Venezia +1.5@2.71
40%Udinese +1.5@2.51
16%Venezia to win to nil@6.26

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.74Expected goals (xG)1.01
4Shots on target5
5Saves2
4Offsides3
15Shots13
1Yellow cards1
3Corners7
11Fouls6
0Red cards0
46Possession %54

Goals in the last 10 matches

Venezia · last 10 matches
5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.8goals per match
2.5at Udinese: 1-2 1-2 ambosen Frosinone: 2-3 2-3 ambosvs Fiorentina: 2-4 2-4 ambosvs Lazio: 0-2 0-2 en Atalanta: 1-3 1-3 ambosvs Napoli: 1-0 1-0 en Genoa: 0-1 0-1 vs Inter: 0-2 0-2 en Como: 0-1 0-1 vs Udinese: 2-1 2-1 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Udinese · last 10 matches
7/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.3goals per match
2.5vs Venezia: 2-1 2-1 ambosvs Lazio: 1-2 1-2 ambosen Inter: 3-5 3-5 ambosvs Cagliari: 0-1 0-1 en Torino: 1-2 1-2 ambosvs Lecce: 0-3 0-3 vs AC Milan: 0-2 0-2 en Parma: 0-0 0-0 vs AS Roma: 2-5 2-5 ambosat Venezia: 1-2 1-2 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

VeneziaUdinese
0.6Goals scored per match1.1
2.0Goals conceded per match2.3
70%Matches with over 1.5 goals80%
30%Matches with over 2.5 goals60%
30%Both teams to score60%
10%Clean sheet10%
60%Matches without scoring40%
4.0Corners won per match4.5
2.2Yellow cards per match1.7

Venezia: 10 matches · Udinese: 10 matches (all competitions with data).

Venezia at home · Udinese away

Venezia at home
1G0E4P
LWLLL
Udinese away
1G1E2P
DLLWL

When do they score and concede?

Venezia · goals by minute in 10 matches scored conceded
020-151516-301231-451346-602261-751676-90
Udinese · goals by minute in 10 matches scored conceded
130-152116-304731-452346-600561-752476-90

The first goal

Venezia

Scores first in 2 of 10 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 0.

Udinese

Scores first in 4 of 9 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 0.

Players in form

Venezia

A. Adams · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

A. Hainaut · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

R. Sagrado · 0 goles, 1 assists in 2 matches

Udinese

Nicolo Zaniolo · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Matteo Palma · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

J. Ekkelenkamp · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

1Venezia to win
0Draws
4Udinese to win

5 matches · 3.8 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-09-02Udinese 2-1 VeneziaCoppa Italia
2025-02-01Udinese 3-2 VeneziaSerie A
2024-10-30Venezia 3-2 UdineseSerie A
2022-04-10Venezia 1-2 UdineseSerie A
2021-08-27Udinese 3-0 VeneziaSerie A

Standings

Serie A standings
#TeamPGDPts
1Lazio11+1629
2Inter11+1528
3AS Roma11+2127
4AC Milan11+1024
5Como11+823
6Frosinone11+920
7Juventus11+318
8Bologna11+217
9Cagliari11-516
10Napoli11+415
11Torino11-214
12Atalanta11-314
13Genoa11-513
14Lecce11-1010
15Fiorentina11-89
16Parma11-88
17Sassuolo11-138
18Monza11-87
19Venezia11-136
20Udinese11-135

More stats

Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi

9 matches · 3.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.25 penalties

Half-time

Venezia: 5 days since last match · Udinese: 6 days

Venezia absences

A. Adorante, B. Franjic, M. Sverko, T. Correia

Udinese absences

D. Alaba, I. Gueye, V. Bayo, O. Solet, A. Zanoli

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 22:20 UTC.

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