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Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras prediction

Brazil · Copa Do Brasil

Vasco DA GamaWLLWL

2 - 1Full time

PalmeirasWWDWL

28%34%38%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Facundo Colidio 16'⚽ Joaquín Piquerez 55'⚽ Jose Luis Rodriguez 76'

Sunday, November 8 · 15:00 (Peru time) · São Januário

🎯 Model pick

Palmeiras or draw

72%

Partial data

Palmeiras unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 (W W D W L)
Away, Palmeiras are 12W 10D 4L this season
Vasco DA Gama in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5

⚡ Summary

38%Palmeiras to win@2.62 40%Over 2.5 goals@2.47 51%Both teams to score@1.96 53%Corners +9.5 (10.2)@1.8842%Cards +4.5 (4.3)@2.381-1Most likely score · 15%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

102'❌ Andrés Gómez (missed pen.)Vasco DA Gama

98'❌ Agustin Giay (missed pen.)Palmeiras

92'❌ Alan Lescano (missed pen.)Vasco DA Gama

90'+3🟨 CuiabanoVasco DA Gama

90'+3🔁 Sub: Cuiabano · Lucas PitonVasco DA Gama

88'🟨 Marlon FreitasPalmeiras

84'🟨 Alexander BarbozaPalmeiras

83'🔁 Sub: Murilo Cerqueira Paim · Bruno FuchsPalmeiras

82'🔁 Sub: Bruno Duarte Da Silva · DavidVasco DA Gama

82'🟨 Andrés GómezVasco DA Gama

80'🔁 Sub: Joaquín Piquerez · Ramon SosaPalmeiras

76'⚽ Jose Luis Rodriguez assist Alan LescanoVasco DA Gama

71'🔁 Sub: Jhon Arias · Andreas PereiraPalmeiras

71'🔁 Sub: Maurício Magalhães Prado · Arthur GabrielPalmeiras

71'🔁 Sub: José Manuel López · Vitor RoquePalmeiras

67'🔁 Sub: Paulo Henrique · Jose Luis RodriguezVasco DA Gama

66'🔁 Sub: Gabriel Pereira · BrennerVasco DA Gama

60'🟨 Marcelo LombaPalmeiras

55'⚽ Joaquín Piquerez assist Lucas EvangelistaPalmeiras

45'+6🟨 Jhon AriasPalmeiras

45'+5🟨 Daniel FuzatoVasco DA Gama

45'+1🟨 Maurício Magalhães PradoPalmeiras

25'🟨 Thiago MendesVasco DA Gama

20'🟨 Gabriel PereiraVasco DA Gama

16'⚽ Facundo Colidio assist CuiabanoVasco DA Gama

Win probability minute by minute

Vasco DA GamaDrawPalmeiras

At kick-off28%34%38%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

28%Vasco DA Gama to win@3.62

34%Draw@2.92

38%Palmeiras to win@2.62

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score51%

Vasco DA Gama or draw62%

Palmeiras or draw72%

Vasco DA Gama to score65%

Palmeiras to score71%

Most likely scores

1-115%0-013%0-111%1-09%1-27%

Expected goals per the model: Vasco DA Gama 1.06 · Palmeiras 1.28

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.34.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.2 in total · Vasco DA Gama 5.0 · Palmeiras 5.2

63%Over 8.5@1.58

53%Over 9.5@1.88

43%Over 10.5@2.31

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.3

59%Over 3.5@1.70

42%Over 4.5@2.38

28%Over 5.5@3.59

⏱️ First half

40% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.93

61%Goal in the 1st half@1.65

24%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@4.19

76%Goal in the 2st half@1.32

⚽ Goals per team

29%Vasco DA Gama +1.5@3.49

37%Palmeiras +1.5@2.73

16%Vasco DA Gama to win to nil@6.35

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

3Shots on target3

2Saves1

1Offsides0

11Shots14

5Yellow cards5

2Corners9

12Fouls12

0Red cards0

53Possession %47

1.00Expected goals (xG)0.78

Goals in the last 10 matches

Vasco DA Gama · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Palmeiras · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score2.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Vasco DA GamaPalmeiras

1.4Goals scored per match1.8

1.2Goals conceded per match0.7

69%Matches with over 1.5 goals68%

56%Matches with over 2.5 goals47%

54%Both teams to score51%

30%Clean sheet45%

28%Matches without scoring15%

5.0Corners won per match6.0

2.0Yellow cards per match2.0

Vasco DA Gama: 54 matches · Palmeiras: 53 matches (all competitions with data).

Vasco DA Gama at home · Palmeiras away

Vasco DA Gama at home

13G6E8P

LWLDW

Palmeiras away

12G10E4P

DWWDL

When do they score and concede?

Vasco DA Gama · goals by minute in 51 matches scored conceded

Palmeiras · goals by minute in 50 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Vasco DA Gama

Scores first in 21 of 45 matches and wins 15 of them.

Concedes first in 24 and avoids defeat in 11.

Palmeiras

Scores first in 35 of 44 matches and wins 30 of them.

Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 5.

Players in form

Vasco DA Gama

J. Rodriguez · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

M. Hinestroza · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Gabriel Pereira · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Palmeiras

Mauricio · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Marlon Freitas · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

J. Lopez · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

1Vasco DA Gama to win

2Draws

7Palmeiras to win

10 matches · 2.3 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-11-01	Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama	Copa Do Brasil
2026-08-23	Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA Gama	Serie A
2026-03-12	Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Palmeiras	Serie A
2025-10-01	Palmeiras 3-0 Vasco DA Gama	Serie A
2025-05-04	Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Palmeiras	Serie A
2024-09-22	Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Palmeiras	Serie A

More stats

Half-time

Vasco DA Gama: 3 days since last match · Palmeiras: 2 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 22:30 UTC.