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Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction
Spain · La Liga
Valencia
Real MadridPre-match probabilities
Saturday, November 7 · 15:00 (Peru time) · Estadio de Mestalla · Referee: Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso
Over 1.5 goals
84%- 2+ goals in 13 of 15 Real Madrid matches
- Head to head: 3.2 goals per match
- Picky expects 3.4 goals (0.8 - 2.6)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Valencia 0.79 · Real Madrid 2.60
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.39.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.8 in total · Valencia 4.0 · Real Madrid 5.7
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.4
⏱️ First half
40% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.34
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Valencia: 11 matches · Real Madrid: 15 matches (all competitions with data).
Valencia at home · Real Madrid away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 4 of 9 matches and wins 2 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 0.
Scores first in 11 of 15 matches and wins 11 of them.
Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 2.
Players in form
Umar Sadiq · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches
A. Mayol · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches
D. Raba · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
Kylian Mbappé · 7 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Yan Diomande · 3 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Arda Güler · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 3.2 goals per match
| 2026-02-08 | Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2025-11-01 | Real Madrid 4-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| 2025-04-05 | Real Madrid 1-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| 2025-01-03 | Valencia 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2024-03-02 | Valencia 2-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2023-11-11 | Real Madrid 5-1 Valencia | La Liga |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Alavés | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 | Málaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More stats
1 matches · 4.0 yellows and 1.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties
Valencia: 6 days since last match · Real Madrid: 3 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 22:30 UTC.