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Uzbekistan vs Russia prediction
International · International friendlies
Uzbekistan
RussiaProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Thursday, November 12 · 10:00 (Peru time) · Pakhtakor Central Stadium
Russia or draw
78%- Russia unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 (D W W W W)
- Uzbekistan in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5
- Sadulaev is on fire: 3 goals in his last 5 matches
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Uzbekistan and Russia meet in the International friendlies.
The PickMania model gives Uzbekistan a 22% chance of winning, 32% for the draw and 46% for Russia.
2.5 total goals are expected (1.0 from Uzbekistan and 1.5 from Russia): over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance and both teams to score 49%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Uzbekistan 0.97 · Russia 1.49
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.46.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.0 in total · Uzbekistan 3.6 · Russia 5.4
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 2.1
⏱️ First half
42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.03
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Uzbekistan: 7 matches · Russia: 8 matches (all competitions with data).
Uzbekistan at home · Russia away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 2 of 6 matches and wins 2 of them.
Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 1.
Scores first in 5 of 7 matches and wins 5 of them.
Concedes first in 2 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
Khuisain Norchaev · 3 goles, 1 assists in 3 matches
Eldor Shomurodov · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Igor Sergeev · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches
Lechi Sadulaev · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Maksim Petrov · 1 gol, 2 assists in 3 matches
Aleksandr Golovin · 2 goles, 0 assists in 1 matches
Head to head
1 matches · 0.0 goals per match
| 2022-11-20 | Uzbekistan 0-0 Russia | Friendlies |
More stats
Uzbekistan: 37 days since last match · Russia: 36 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.