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Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen prediction
Netherlands · Eredivisie
Utrecht
NEC NijmegenPre-match probabilities
Sunday, November 8 · 14:00 (Peru time) · Stadion Galgenwaard · Referee: Erwin Blank
Over 1.5 goals
85%- 2+ goals in 11 of 11 Utrecht matches
- Also in 17 of 19 NEC Nijmegen matches
- Picky expects 3.4 goals (1.9 - 1.5)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Utrecht 1.85 · NEC Nijmegen 1.54
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.39.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.2 in total · Utrecht 3.9 · NEC Nijmegen 5.4
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.2 · el árbitro Erwin Blank saca 2.8 por partido
⏱️ First half
41% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.38
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Utrecht: 11 matches · NEC Nijmegen: 19 matches (all competitions with data).
Utrecht at home · NEC Nijmegen away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 4 of 11 matches and wins 2 of them.
Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 3.
Scores first in 5 of 18 matches and wins 3 of them.
Concedes first in 13 and avoids defeat in 6.
Players in form
Ángel Alarcón · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Yoann Cathline · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
A. Zagre · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Bryan Linssen · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Clement Bischoff · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Tjaronn Chery · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.1 goals per match
| 2026-02-11 | NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| 2025-11-02 | Utrecht 1-0 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 2025-03-15 | Utrecht 0-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 2024-11-24 | NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| 2024-03-17 | Utrecht 1-0 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 2023-09-23 | NEC Nijmegen 3-0 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | +25 | 26 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | -13 | 12 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | -29 | 3 |
More stats
8 matches · 2.4 yellows and 0.40 reds per match · 0.40 penalties
Utrecht: 7 days since last match · NEC Nijmegen: 3 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 21:30 UTC.