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Universitario vs UCV Moquegua prediction

Peru · Liga 1

Universitario#2 · 61 ptsDWWWD

2 - 2Full time

UCV Moquegua#17 · 30 ptsDLLWL

74%18%8%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ William Riveros 36'⚽ Juan Diego Lojas 43'⚽ Gianluca Lapadula 59' (p)⚽ Brayan Angulo 78' (p)

Sunday, November 8 · 20:30 (Peru time) · Estadio Monumental U Marathon · Referee: Sebastian Lozano

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

81%

Full data

2+ goals in 29 of 38 Universitario matches
Also in 21 of 32 UCV Moquegua matches
Picky expects 3.1 goals (2.4 - 0.7)

⚡ Summary

74%Universitario to win@1.35 60%Over 2.5 goals@1.68 43%Both teams to score@2.35 40%Corners +9.5 (8.9)@2.4743%Cards +4.5 (4.3)@2.342-0Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

89'🔁 Sub: Yorman Zapata · Edgar Miguel Santillán VargasUCV Moquegua

89'🔁 Sub: Cristian Mejía · José Luis GrandaUCV Moquegua

84'🔁 Sub: Jeferson Collazos · Claudio RamírezUCV Moquegua

79'🔁 Sub: Jairo Concha · José RiveraUniversitario

78'⚽ Brayan Angulo (pen.)UCV Moquegua

75'🟨 Jorge MurrugarraUniversitario

73'🔁 Sub: Edgar Lastre · Allonso Alberto Dávila CárdenasUCV Moquegua

73'🔁 Sub: Diego Ramírez · Brayan AnguloUCV Moquegua

70'🔁 Sub: Edison Flores · Piero QuispeUniversitario

70'🔁 Sub: Gianluca Lapadula · Jorge GutiérrezUniversitario

68'🟨 William RiverosUniversitario

63'🔁 Sub: Horacio Calcaterra · Jorge MurrugarraUniversitario

59'⚽ Gianluca Lapadula (pen.)Universitario

53'🟨 R. ChipaoUCV Moquegua

46'🟨 Aldair PerlecheUCV Moquegua

45'🔁 Sub: César Inga · Bryan ReynaUniversitario

43'⚽ Juan Diego LojasUCV Moquegua

36'⚽ William Riveros assist Jairo ConchaUniversitario

33'🟨 Edgar LastreUCV Moquegua

Win probability minute by minute

UniversitarioDrawUCV Moquegua

At kick-off74%18%8%Full time0%100%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

74%Universitario to win@1.35

18%Draw@5.60

8%UCV Moquegua to win@12.52

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score43%

Universitario or draw92%

UCV Moquegua or draw26%

Universitario to score90%

UCV Moquegua to score51%

Most likely scores

2-013%1-010%3-010%2-19%1-18%

Expected goals per the model: Universitario 2.44 · UCV Moquegua 0.71

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.15.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 8.9 in total · Universitario 5.4 · UCV Moquegua 3.5

51%Over 8.5@1.97

40%Over 9.5@2.47

31%Over 10.5@3.21

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.3 · el árbitro Sebastian Lozano saca 4.5 por partido

59%Over 3.5@1.68

43%Over 4.5@2.34

28%Over 5.5@3.52

⏱️ First half

42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.32

73%Goal in the 1st half@1.36

38%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.63

84%Goal in the 2st half@1.19

⚽ Goals per team

70%Universitario +1.5@1.43

16%UCV Moquegua +1.5@6.28

44%Universitario to win to nil@2.29

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

2.10Expected goals (xG)1.19

5Shots on target4

2Saves3

20Shots12

2Yellow cards3

11Corners6

11Fouls8

0Red cards0

68Possession %32

Goals in the last 10 matches

Universitario · last 10 matches

10/10+2.5 goals8/10both teams to score4.1goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

UCV Moquegua · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals3/10both teams to score2.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

UniversitarioUCV Moquegua

1.6Goals scored per match0.8

1.1Goals conceded per match1.4

76%Matches with over 1.5 goals66%

61%Matches with over 2.5 goals47%

58%Both teams to score38%

32%Clean sheet28%

26%Matches without scoring50%

5.7Corners won per match3.5

1.6Yellow cards per match2.3

Universitario: 38 matches · UCV Moquegua: 32 matches (all competitions with data).

Universitario at home · UCV Moquegua away

Universitario at home

11G5E3P

DWDDW

UCV Moquegua away

3G2E11P

LWLLW

When do they score and concede?

Universitario · goals by minute in 35 matches scored conceded

UCV Moquegua · goals by minute in 30 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Universitario

Scores first in 16 of 29 matches and wins 13 of them.

Concedes first in 13 and avoids defeat in 6.

UCV Moquegua

Scores first in 11 of 25 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 14 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Universitario

Alex Valera · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Gianluca Lapadula · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Andy Polo · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

UCV Moquegua

Bryan Angulo · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

A. Davila · 0 goles, 1 assists in 3 matches

Head to head

0Universitario to win

1Draws

0UCV Moquegua to win

1 matches · 0.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-23	UCV Moquegua 0-0 Universitario	Primera División

Standings

Liga 1 standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	+30	69
2	Universitario	33	+20	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	+18	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	+15	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	+15	51
6	Cusco	33	-1	51
7	Cienciano	33	+8	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	-1	50
9	Alianza Atlético	33	+1	49
10	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	33	-12	48
11	Sport Boys	33	+2	46
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	-11	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	-3	37
14	Atlético Grau	33	-9	37
15	ADT	33	-12	32
16	FC Cajamarca	33	-19	31
17	UCV Moquegua	33	-21	30
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	-20	19

More stats

Referee: Sebastian Lozano

17 matches · 4.2 yellows and 0.36 reds per match · 0.82 penalties

Half-time

Universitario: 4 days since last match · UCV Moquegua: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-09 04:00 UTC.