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Unión St. Gilloise vs Genk prediction

Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

Unión St. Gilloise#1 · 29 ptsWWWWD

1 - 0Full time

Genk#7 · 15 ptsLWWLD

61%22%17%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ R. Sykes 76'

Sunday, November 8 · 12:30 (Peru time) · Stade Joseph Marien · Referee: Bram Van Driessche

🎯 Model pick

Unión St. Gilloise or draw

83%

Full data

Unión St. Gilloise unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 (W W W W D)
At home, Unión St. Gilloise are 4W 4D 0L this season
#1 in the table, Genk #7

⚡ Summary

61%Unión St. Gilloise to win@1.65 60%Over 2.5 goals@1.66 59%Both teams to score@1.71 48%Corners +9.5 (9.7)@2.0940%Cards +4.5 (4.2)@2.531-1Most likely score · 10%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

89'🟨 Y. MedinaGenk

84'🔁 Sub: B. Tahirovic · N. Adedeji-SternbergGenk

83'🔁 Sub: C. Ravych · J. ItoGenk

80'🔁 Sub: B. Zeneli · D. OlaruUnión St. Gilloise

80'🔁 Sub: Guilherme Smith · D. De RoeveUnión St. Gilloise

76'⚽ R. Sykes assist B. ZeneliUnión St. Gilloise

71'🔁 Sub: J. Kayembe · Y. MedinaGenk

71'🔁 Sub: K. Amaro · M. RoganovicGenk

63'🟨 M. SyllaUnión St. Gilloise

60'🔁 Sub: K. Rodriguez · R. MofokengUnión St. Gilloise

58'🔁 Sub: A. Bibout · J. ErenbjergGenk

46'🔁 Sub: N. Havenaar · N. ChibaniUnión St. Gilloise

Win probability minute by minute

Unión St. GilloiseDrawGenk

At kick-off61%22%17%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

61%Unión St. Gilloise to win@1.65

22%Draw@4.56

17%Genk to win@5.77

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score59%

Unión St. Gilloise or draw83%

Genk or draw39%

Unión St. Gilloise to score87%

Genk to score65%

Most likely scores

1-110%2-110%2-09%1-09%3-17%

Expected goals per the model: Unión St. Gilloise 2.12 · Genk 1.06

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.18.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.7 in total · Unión St. Gilloise 5.2 · Genk 4.5

58%Over 8.5@1.72

48%Over 9.5@2.09

38%Over 10.5@2.62

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.2 · el árbitro B. Van Driessche saca 3.8 por partido

56%Over 3.5@1.77

40%Over 4.5@2.53

26%Over 5.5@3.89

⏱️ First half

44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.41

76%Goal in the 1st half@1.32

41%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.42

83%Goal in the 2st half@1.21

⚽ Goals per team

63%Unión St. Gilloise +1.5@1.60

29%Genk +1.5@3.49

30%Unión St. Gilloise to win to nil@3.35

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

4Shots on target0

21Shots7

7Fouls9

8Corners3

1Offsides1

57Possession %43

1Yellow cards0

0Saves3

1.21Expected goals (xG)0.36

Goals in the last 10 matches

Unión St. Gilloise · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score3.2goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Genk · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score3.0goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Unión St. GilloiseGenk

2.8Goals scored per match1.8

0.9Goals conceded per match1.4

94%Matches with over 1.5 goals80%

75%Matches with over 2.5 goals70%

56%Both teams to score50%

44%Clean sheet30%

6%Matches without scoring30%

4.9Corners won per match5.1

2.0Yellow cards per match2.2

Unión St. Gilloise: 16 matches · Genk: 10 matches (all competitions with data).

Unión St. Gilloise at home · Genk away

Unión St. Gilloise at home

4G4E0P

WWDDW

Genk away

0G2E3P

LLDDL

When do they score and concede?

Unión St. Gilloise · goals by minute in 16 matches scored conceded

Genk · goals by minute in 10 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Unión St. Gilloise

Scores first in 8 of 15 matches and wins 8 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 6.

Genk

Scores first in 4 of 9 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 3.

Players in form

Unión St. Gilloise

Guilherme Smith · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

L. Patris · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

Relebohile Mofokeng · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

Genk

Rafiu Durosinmi · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Daan Heymans · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

J. Ito · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

7Unión St. Gilloise to win

0Draws

3Genk to win

10 matches · 2.3 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-03-07	Unión St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk	Jupiler Pro League
2025-09-21	Genk 1-2 Unión St. Gilloise	Jupiler Pro League
2025-05-03	Unión St. Gilloise 1-0 Genk	Jupiler Pro League
2025-04-20	Genk 1-2 Unión St. Gilloise	Jupiler Pro League
2025-03-15	Genk 2-1 Unión St. Gilloise	Jupiler Pro League
2024-11-10	Unión St. Gilloise 4-0 Genk	Jupiler Pro League

Standings

Jupiler Pro League standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Unión St. Gilloise	11	+23	29
2	Club Brugge KV	11	+18	28
3	Gent	11	+14	28
4	Charleroi	11	+13	27
5	Anderlecht	11	+2	20
6	Lommel United	11	+2	16
7	Genk	11	+3	15
8	Standard Liege	11	+2	15
9	KVC Westerlo	11	-4	14
10	OH Leuven	11	-5	12
11	KV Mechelen	11	-7	12
12	St. Truiden	11	0	11
13	Antwerp	11	-6	11
14	Zulte Waregem	11	-7	11
15	SK Beveren	11	-10	10
16	Cercle Brugge	11	-8	9
17	RAAL La Louvière	11	-11	7
18	Kortrijk	11	-19	4

More stats

Referee: B. Van Driessche

17 matches · 3.6 yellows and 0.18 reds per match · 0.45 penalties

Half-time

Unión St. Gilloise: 2 days since last match · Genk: 8 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 20:00 UTC.