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Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield prediction
Argentina · Liga Profesional
Unión Santa Fe
Vélez SarsfieldPre-match probabilities
Friday, November 6 · 17:15 (Peru time) · Estadio April 15 · Referee: Andres Gariano
Vélez Sarsfield to score
74%- Vélez Sarsfield scored in 27 of 32 matches this season
- Vélez Sarsfield average 1.3 goals per match
- Unión Santa Fe concede 1.4 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Unión Santa Fe 1.13 · Vélez Sarsfield 1.37
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.50.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.4 in total · Unión Santa Fe 4.6 · Vélez Sarsfield 4.8
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 5.4 · el árbitro Andres Gariano saca 6.0 por partido
⏱️ First half
40% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.99
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Unión Santa Fe: 33 matches · Vélez Sarsfield: 32 matches (all competitions with data).
Unión Santa Fe at home · Vélez Sarsfield away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 7 of 20 matches and wins 3 of them.
Concedes first in 13 and avoids defeat in 7.
Scores first in 13 of 18 matches and wins 6 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 3.
Players in form
Marcelo Estigarriba · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Cristian Tarragona · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
T. Rubio · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
Ronaldo Martinez · 5 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Matías Pellegrini · 2 goles, 1 assists in 2 matches
Juan Cruz Policella · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
9 matches · 2.7 goals per match
| 2026-04-27 | Vélez Sarsfield 2-2 Unión Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-12-07 | Unión Santa Fe 1-0 Vélez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2023-07-24 | Vélez Sarsfield 0-0 Unión Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2022-08-06 | Unión Santa Fe 2-1 Vélez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2021-09-06 | Vélez Sarsfield 4-0 Unión Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2021-04-04 | Vélez Sarsfield 4-1 Unión Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | +12 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | +6 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | +4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | +4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | +4 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | -8 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | -5 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | -7 | 11 |
More stats
17 matches · 6.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 1.00 penalties
Unión Santa Fe: 5 days since last match · Vélez Sarsfield: 6 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 00:50 UTC.