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Twente vs Ajax prediction
Netherlands · Eredivisie
Twente
AjaxPre-match probabilities
Sunday, 8 November · 08:30 (Peru time) · De Grolsch Veste · Referee: Joey Kooij
Ajax to score
78%- Ajax scored in 20 of 20 matches this season
- Ajax average 3.0 goals per match
- Arokodare is on fire: 5 goals in his last 5 matches
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Twente 2.03 · Ajax 1.55
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.58.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 10.4 in total · Twente 5.3 · Ajax 5.0
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.2 · el árbitro Joey Kooij saca 3.6 por partido
⏱️ First half
42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.50
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Twente: 20 matches · Ajax: 20 matches (all competitions with data).
Twente at home · Ajax away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 12 of 20 matches and wins 9 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 5.
Scores first in 16 of 20 matches and wins 12 of them.
Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 2.
Players in form
S. Orjasaeter · 2 goles, 5 assists in 5 matches
Wout Weghorst · 5 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
T. van den Belt · 3 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches
T. Arokodare · 5 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Julian Brandt · 2 goles, 2 assists in 4 matches
A. Ouazane · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.7 goals per match
| 2026-04-16 | Ajax 0-1 Twente | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-04-04 | Ajax 1-2 Twente | Eredivisie |
| 2025-10-26 | Twente 2-3 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 2025-05-18 | Ajax 2-0 Twente | Eredivisie |
| 2024-11-10 | Twente 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 2024-04-14 | Ajax 2-1 Twente | Eredivisie |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | +25 | 26 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | -13 | 12 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | -29 | 3 |
More stats
13 matches · 3.5 yellows and 0.13 reds per match · 1.00 penalties
Twente: 2 days since last match · Ajax: 2 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 16:00 UTC.