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Türkiye vs Belgium prediction
International · UEFA Nations LeagueProbability of each result according to the model
Thursday, November 12 · 12:00 (Peru time) · Gürsel Aksel Stadium · Referee: Sandro Schärer
Over 1.5 goals
84%- 2+ goals in 5 of 6 Türkiye matches
- Also in 7 of 8 Belgium matches
- Picky expects 3.4 goals (1.4 - 2.0)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Türkiye and Belgium meet in the UEFA Nations League.
The PickMania model gives Türkiye a 24% chance of winning, 23% for the draw and 52% for Belgium.
3.4 total goals are expected (1.4 from Türkiye and 2.0 from Belgium): over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance and both teams to score 65%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Türkiye 1.36 · Belgium 2.05
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.41.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.9 in total · Türkiye 6.4 · Belgium 3.5
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.1 · referee Sandro Schärer shows 3.7 per match
⏱️ First half
37% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.27
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Türkiye: 6 matches · Belgium: 8 matches (all competitions with data).
Türkiye at home · Belgium away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 1 of 6 matches and wins 1 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 1.
Scores first in 5 of 8 matches and wins 4 of them.
Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 2.
Players in form
Barış Alper Yılmaz · 2 goals, 0 assists in 4 matches
A. Simsir · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches
Yunus Akgün · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches
Kevin De Bruyne · 3 goals, 1 assists in 4 matches
D. Lukebakio · 3 goals, 1 assists in 5 matches
Charles De Ketelaere · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
1 matches · 3.0 goals per match
| Fecha | Local | Visitante | Competition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-10-2026 | Belgium  | 3-0 |  Türkiye | UEFA Nations League |
Standings · League A - Group A
Bélgica es 3.º con 6 pts y Turquía 4.º con 0: 6 puntos de diferencia.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 7 | LWDW |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | +1 | 6 | WLWL |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | -9 | 0 | LLLL |
Resaltados: los dos equipos de este partido · G/E/P = ganados, empatados, perdidos · Form: últimos 5 partidos, del más antiguo al más reciente.
More stats
12 matches · 3.7 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.43 penalties
Türkiye: 37 days since last match · Belgium: 37 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-12 01:47 UTC.