Home › International · UEFA Nations League › Türkiye vs Bélgica
Türkiye vs Belgium prediction
International · UEFA Nations League
Türkiye
BelgiumProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Thursday, November 12 · 12:00 (Peru time) · Gürsel Aksel Stadium · Referee: Sandro Schärer
Over 1.5 goals
83%- 2+ goals in 5 of 6 Türkiye matches
- Also in 7 of 8 Belgium matches
- Picky expects 3.4 goals (1.4 - 2.0)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Türkiye and Belgium meet in the UEFA Nations League.
The PickMania model gives Türkiye a 24% chance of winning, 23% for the draw and 52% for Belgium.
3.4 total goals are expected (1.4 from Türkiye and 2.0 from Belgium): over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance and both teams to score 65%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Türkiye 1.35 · Belgium 2.04
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.39.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.9 in total · Türkiye 6.4 · Belgium 3.5
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.1 · el árbitro Sandro Schärer saca 3.7 por partido
⏱️ First half
37% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.26
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Türkiye: 6 matches · Belgium: 8 matches (all competitions with data).
Türkiye at home · Belgium away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 1 of 6 matches and wins 1 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 1.
Scores first in 5 of 8 matches and wins 4 of them.
Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 2.
Players in form
Barış Alper Yılmaz · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
A. Simsir · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches
Yunus Akgün · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches
Kevin De Bruyne · 3 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
D. Lukebakio · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Charles De Ketelaere · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
1 matches · 3.0 goals per match
| 2026-10-02 | Belgium 3-0 Türkiye | UEFA Nations League |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | -9 | 0 |
More stats
12 matches · 3.7 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.43 penalties
Türkiye: 37 days since last match · Belgium: 37 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.