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Trival Valderas vs Leganés prediction

Spain · Copa del Rey

Trival Valderas

0 - 1Full time

LeganésLLDLL

7%13%80%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ A. Millan 48'

Tuesday, November 10 · 14:00 (Peru time) · Campo de Futbol La Canaleja

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

81%

Partial data

2+ goals in 9 of 13 Leganés matches
Picky expects 3.3 goals (0.6 - 2.7)

⚡ Summary

80%Leganés to win@1.25 61%Over 2.5 goals@1.63 35%Both teams to score@2.89 0-2Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

86'🟨 D. O. RaulTrival Valderas

82'🟨 TankeTrival Valderas

81'🔁 Sub: Y. Kechta · A. MorataLeganés

78'🔁 Sub: F. Reguera · V. CalargeTrival Valderas

78'🔁 Sub: G. Yeboah · Y. BayanoTrival Valderas

71'🔁 Sub: P. Soko · Alex SancrisLeganés

71'🔁 Sub: N. Garcia · SuleLeganés

63'🔁 Sub: D. Rodriguez · MarvelLeganés

63'🔁 Sub: U. del Cura · M. AtienzaLeganés

58'🔁 Sub: I. Lopez · D. RodriguezTrival Valderas

58'🔁 Sub: Choko · S. AlaleTrival Valderas

55'🟨 I. LopezTrival Valderas

48'⚽ A. Millan assist N. GarciaLeganés

43'🟨 N. GarciaLeganés

28'🟨 J. MonteroLeganés

17'🔁 Sub: A. Rivero · TankeTrival Valderas

Win probability minute by minute

Trival ValderasDrawLeganés

At kick-off7%13%80%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

7%Trival Valderas to win@14.73

13%Draw@7.65

80%Leganés to win@1.25

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score35%

Trival Valderas or draw20%

Leganés or draw93%

Trival Valderas to score45%

Leganés to score91%

Most likely scores

0-213%0-111%0-311%1-27%0-47%

Expected goals per the model: Trival Valderas 0.62 · Leganés 2.70

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.32.

Corners, cards and first half

⚽ Goals per team

13%Trival Valderas +1.5@7.78

75%Leganés +1.5@1.33

4%Trival Valderas to win to nil@28.01

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Leganés · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score3.1goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Trival ValderasLeganés

0.0Goals scored per match0.8

0.0Goals conceded per match1.8

0%Matches with over 1.5 goals69%

0%Matches with over 2.5 goals38%

0%Both teams to score38%

0%Clean sheet23%

0%Matches without scoring46%

Trival Valderas: 0 matches · Leganés: 13 matches (all competitions with data).

Trival Valderas at home · Leganés away

Trival Valderas at home

0G0E0P

Leganés away

1G2E4P

LLLLD

When do they score and concede?

Leganés · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Leganés

Scores first in 4 of 12 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Trival Valderas

Sin datos

Leganés

Álvaro Morata · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Alejandro San Cristobal Sanchez · 0 goles, 3 assists in 4 matches

Álex Millán · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

More stats

Half-time

Trival Valderas: – days since last match · Leganés: 3 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC.