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Toulouse vs Strasbourg prediction
France · Ligue 1
Toulouse
StrasbourgPre-match probabilities
Friday, November 6 · 14:45 (Peru time) · Stadium Municipal · Referee: Mathieu Vernice
Toulouse to score
83%- Toulouse average 1.3 goals per match
- Strasbourg concede 2.1 goals per match
- Strasbourg kept a clean sheet in only 0 of 9
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Toulouse 1.80 · Strasbourg 1.34
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.14.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 7.7 in total · Toulouse 4.2 · Strasbourg 3.4
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.6 · el árbitro Mathieu Vernice saca 3.3 por partido
⏱️ First half
31% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.98
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Toulouse: 9 matches · Strasbourg: 9 matches (all competitions with data).
Toulouse at home · Strasbourg away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 3 of 8 matches and wins 2 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 2.
Scores first in 4 of 9 matches and wins 1 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 2.
Players in form
C. Tengstedt · 4 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
A. Donnum · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches
T. Jorgensen · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Gessime Yassine · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Dario Essugo · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Conrad Harder · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.6 goals per match
| 2026-05-03 | Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Toulouse 1-0 Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Strasbourg 2-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-01-12 | Toulouse 1-2 Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-07 | Toulouse 0-0 Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-08-27 | Strasbourg 2-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 | Lille | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 | Nice | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 | Rennes | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 | Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Angers | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | -13 | 2 |
More stats
7 matches · 3.3 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties
Toulouse: 5 days since last match · Strasbourg: 5 days
A. Donnum, R. Messali, M. Niflore
J. Panichelli, F. Balde
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 22:20 UTC.