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Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia prediction

International · UEFA Europa League
Torreense badgeTorreense#19 · 6 ptsLLWLD
3 - 2Full time
Ararat-Armenia badgeArarat-Armenia#36 · 0 ptsLLLWD

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Jorge Aguirre de Céspedes 13'🟥 Jorge Aguirre de Céspedes 25'⚽ Karen Muradyan 41'⚽ Bruno Wilson 58'🟥 joao donna 76'⚽ Javi Vazquez 90'⚽ musa drammeh 90'

Thursday, November 5 · 15:00 (Peru time) · Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa · Referee: Milos Milanovic

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Torreense to score

84%
Partial data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+5⚽ musa drammehTorreense
90'+3⚽ Javi Vazquez assist David BrunoTorreense
88'🟨 musa drammehTorreense
88'🟨 Gustavo Sousa Alhinho Alves RijoTorreense
85'🔁 Sub: hugo oliveira · Maxence CarlierArarat-Armenia
84'🟨 Carlos Henrique França FreiresArarat-Armenia
80'🔁 Sub: Juan Andres Balanta · Kamo HovhannisyanArarat-Armenia
79'🔁 Sub: Artur Serobyan · Arman NersesyanArarat-Armenia
79'🟨 Arman NersesyanArarat-Armenia
76'🔁 Sub: João Marques · Amine OudrhiriTorreense
76'🔁 Sub: Dany Jean · Juan María AlcedoTorreense
76'🟥 joao donnaArarat-Armenia
68'🔁 Sub: Bernardo Oliveira · Zidane BanjaquiArarat-Armenia
68'🔁 Sub: Zhirayr Shaghoyan · Carlos Henrique França FreiresArarat-Armenia
66'🔁 Sub: Manuel Pozo · L. QuinteroTorreense
66'🔁 Sub: Jonathan Mutombo Mawesi · David BrunoTorreense
58'⚽ Bruno Wilson assist Artur SerobyanArarat-Armenia
48'🟨 Bernardo OliveiraArarat-Armenia
45'+2🟨 Karen MuradyanArarat-Armenia
45'+2🟨 Volnei FeltesTorreense
43'🟨 Bruno WilsonArarat-Armenia
41'⚽ Karen Muradyan assist Zhirayr ShaghoyanArarat-Armenia
36'🔁 Sub: Karem Zoabi · musa drammehTorreense
25'🟥 Jorge Aguirre de CéspedesTorreense
22'📺 Jorge Aguirre de CéspedesTorreense
13'⚽ Jorge Aguirre de Céspedes assist Javi VazquezTorreense

Win probability minute by minute

TorreenseDrawArarat-Armenia
At kick-off55%28%17%Full time0%0%100%
0%25%50%75%100% ⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

55%Torreense to win@1.83
28%Draw@3.58
17%Ararat-Armenia to win@5.74
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams to score57%
Torreense or draw83%
Ararat-Armenia or draw45%
Torreense to score84%
Ararat-Armenia to score64%

Most likely scores

1-112%1-09%2-19%2-09%0-08%

Expected goals per the model: Torreense 1.96 · Ararat-Armenia 1.07

How many goals will there be?

5%0 goals15%1 goals22%2 goals22%3 goals17%4 goals19%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.03.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 11.4 in total · Torreense 5.0 · Ararat-Armenia 6.4

74%Over 8.5@1.36
64%Over 9.5@1.55
55%Over 10.5@1.82
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.4

61%Over 3.5@1.65
44%Over 4.5@2.27
30%Over 5.5@3.38

⏱️ First half

41% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.24

71%Goal in the 1st half@1.41
35%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.84
83%Goal in the 2st half@1.20

⚽ Goals per team

58%Torreense +1.5@1.72
29%Ararat-Armenia +1.5@3.45
27%Torreense to win to nil@3.68

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.90Expected goals (xG)1.49
5Shots on target8
6Saves2
2Offsides4
1Red cards1
12Shots19
3Yellow cards5
4Corners6
13Fouls11
42Possession %58

Goals in the last 10 matches

Torreense · last 10 matches
5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.5goals per match
2.5en Benfica B: 2-0 2-0 vs Leixoes: 0-0 0-0 en Lillestrom: 2-1 2-1 ambosen Tondela: 0-1 0-1 vs Sunderland: 1-2 1-2 ambosen Ferencvarosi TC: 1-4 1-4 ambosvs Amarante: 1-0 1-0 en Portimonense: 0-0 0-0 vs Ararat-Armenia: 3-2 3-2 ambosvs União de Leiria: 2-3 2-3 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Ararat-Armenia · last 10 matches
6/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.1goals per match
2.5vs Shamrock Rovers: 2-0 2-0 en Shamrock Rovers: 1-2 1-2 ambosvs Celje: 2-1 2-1 ambosen Celje: 0-2 0-2 en Universitatea Craiova: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Universitatea Craiova: 1-0 1-0 vs Sparta Praha: 1-4 1-4 ambosen Jagiellonia: 1-3 1-3 ambosvs AZ Alkmaar: 0-4 0-4 at Torreense: 2-3 2-3 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

TorreenseArarat-Armenia
1.3Goals scored per match1.2
2.3Goals conceded per match1.8
100%Matches with over 1.5 goals91%
100%Matches with over 2.5 goals55%
100%Both teams to score55%
0%Clean sheet27%
0%Matches without scoring18%
2.7Corners won per match3.8
2.0Yellow cards per match2.1

Torreense: 3 matches · Ararat-Armenia: 11 matches (all competitions with data).

Torreense at home · Ararat-Armenia away

Torreense at home
0G0E1P
LD
Ararat-Armenia away
0G1E4P
LDLLL

When do they score and concede?

Torreense · goals by minute in 3 matches scored conceded
000-152116-301031-451146-600161-750476-90
Ararat-Armenia · goals by minute in 11 matches scored conceded
130-151616-301331-453246-604161-753576-90

The first goal

Torreense

Scores first in 2 of 3 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 1 and avoids defeat in 0.

Ararat-Armenia

Scores first in 5 of 11 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Torreense

Manuel Pozo · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches

Javi Vazquez · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Volnei Feltes · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Ararat-Armenia

Sandro Lima · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Zidane Banjaqui · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

A. Malis · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Standings

UEFA Europa League standings
#TeamPGDPts
1Benfica4+1012
2Bournemouth4+912
3Ferencvarosi TC4+812
4Unión St. Gilloise4+810
5Juventus4+710
6Olympiakos Piraeus4+310
7Bayer Leverkusen4+79
8Beşiktaş4+37
9Dinamo Zagreb4+17
10Levski Sofia4+17
11Sunderland407
12NEC Nijmegen4-17
13Lyon4-17
14AZ Alkmaar4+36
15Anderlecht4+36
16OFI4+16
17Rennes4+16
18Omonia Nicosia4-16
19Torreense4-26
20Real Sociedad4+55
21Crystal Palace4+35
22Sparta Praha404
231899 Hoffenheim404
24Sturm Graz4-34
25Celje4-44
26Red Bull Salzburg4-54
27Celta Vigo4-23
28AC Milan4-33
29Jagiellonia4-33
30Plzen4-43
31Marseille4-43
32Celtic4-53
33Hapoel Beer Sheva4-71
34Lillestrom4-81
35Lech Poznan4-101
36Ararat-Armenia4-100

More stats

Referee: Milos Milanovic

4 matches · 3.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 2.00 penalties

Half-time

Torreense: 14 days since last match · Ararat-Armenia: 14 days

Torreense absences

A. Baradji

Ararat-Armenia absences

P. Ayongo

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 00:10 UTC.

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