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Toluca vs Monterrey prediction
Mexico · Liga MX
Toluca
MonterreyPre-match probabilities
Saturday, 7 November · 20:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Nemesio Diez · Referee: Daniel Quintero Huitron
Over 1.5 goals
85%- 2+ goals in 13 of 15 Toluca matches
- Also in 11 of 14 Monterrey matches
- Head to head: 3.3 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Toluca 2.15 · Monterrey 1.23
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.38.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 11.0 in total · Toluca 5.2 · Monterrey 5.8
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.6
⏱️ First half
51% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.72
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Toluca: 15 matches · Monterrey: 14 matches (all competitions with data).
Toluca at home · Monterrey away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 10 of 14 matches and wins 6 of them.
Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 3.
Scores first in 7 of 13 matches and wins 6 of them.
Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro · 1 gol, 4 assists in 5 matches
Federico Viñas · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Alexis Vega · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
Lucas Ocampos · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Hugo Cuypers · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
D. Rossi · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 3.3 goals per match
| 2026-10-03 | Monterrey 2-1 Toluca | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-09-07 | Toluca 2-0 Monterrey | Leagues Cup |
| 2026-01-11 | Monterrey 0-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2025-12-07 | Toluca 3-2 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2025-12-04 | Monterrey 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-25 | Toluca 6-2 Monterrey | Liga MX |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | +11 | 32 |
| 2 | Club América | 16 | +15 | 30 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | +11 | 30 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | +14 | 27 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | -3 | 27 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | +3 | 25 |
| 7 | Club León | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | +9 | 22 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | +1 | 21 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 12 | Club Querétaro | 15 | -5 | 20 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 14 | Atlético San Luis | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | -8 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 16 | -21 | 11 |
More stats
2 matches · 6.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.50 penalties
Toluca: 6 days since last match · Monterrey: 6 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 03:30 UTC.