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Tigre vs Sarmiento Junín prediction

Argentina · Liga Profesional

Tigre#10 · 20 ptsWLDLL

1 - 0Full time

Sarmiento Junín#11 · 19 ptsLLDDW

38%35%27%

Pre-match probabilities

🟥 Gaston Gonzalez 50'🟥 Lucas·Suarez 55'⚽ Santiago Lopez Grobin 70'

Friday, November 6 · 20:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna · Referee: Pereira·Gonzalo

🎯 Model pick

Tigre or draw

73%

Full data

At home, Tigre are 7W 6D 7L this season
Head to head: 1W 5D 3L for Tigre
Domina is on fire: 3 goals in his last 5 matches

⚡ Summary

38%Tigre to win@2.63 39%Over 2.5 goals@2.55 45%Both teams to score@2.21 43%Corners +9.5 (9.2)@2.3551%Cards +4.5 (4.9)@1.951-1Most likely score · 16%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+3🔁 Sub: Jabes Saralegui · Manuel FernándezTigre

90'+3🔁 Sub: Santiago Lopez Grobin · Luciano MinnitiTigre

89'🔁 Sub: Gabriel Díaz · Nicolas PasquiniSarmiento Junín

83'📺 Mauro MéndezTigre

80'🟨 Mauro MéndezTigre

76'🔁 Sub: Junior Marabel · Julián ContreraSarmiento Junín

76'🔁 Sub: Julian Mavilla · Jonathan HerreraSarmiento Junín

76'🔁 Sub: Gonzalo Martínez · Ignacio RussoTigre

70'⚽ Santiago Lopez Grobin assist Jabes SaraleguiTigre

67'🟨 Alan BarrionuevoTigre

64'🔁 Sub: Tiago Serrago · Mauro MéndezTigre

57'🔁 Sub: Elián Giménez · Ulises Adrian GimenezSarmiento Junín

55'📺 Lucas·SuarezSarmiento Junín

55'🟥 Lucas·SuarezSarmiento Junín

50'🟥 Gaston GonzalezSarmiento Junín

45'🟨 Thiago SantamaríaSarmiento Junín

35'❌ Junior Marabel (missed pen.)Sarmiento Junín

32'📺 Julian MavillaSarmiento Junín

Win probability minute by minute

TigreDrawSarmiento Junín

At kick-off38%35%27%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

38%Tigre to win@2.63

35%Draw@2.89

27%Sarmiento Junín to win@3.66

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score45%

Tigre or draw73%

Sarmiento Junín or draw62%

Tigre to score71%

Sarmiento Junín to score64%

Most likely scores

1-116%0-013%1-011%0-19%2-18%

Expected goals per the model: Tigre 1.25 · Sarmiento Junín 1.03

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.28.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.2 in total · Tigre 5.4 · Sarmiento Junín 3.8

53%Over 8.5@1.89

43%Over 9.5@2.35

33%Over 10.5@3.02

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.9

67%Over 3.5@1.49

51%Over 4.5@1.95

36%Over 5.5@2.77

⏱️ First half

44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.01

64%Goal in the 1st half@1.57

27%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.71

72%Goal in the 2st half@1.39

⚽ Goals per team

36%Tigre +1.5@2.81

28%Sarmiento Junín +1.5@3.63

23%Tigre to win to nil@4.41

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.99Expected goals (xG)1.02

3Shots on target3

3Saves2

4Offsides0

13Shots10

2Yellow cards1

4Corners4

0Red cards2

12Fouls10

61Possession %39

Goals in the last 10 matches

Tigre · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.3goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Sarmiento Junín · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score2.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

TigreSarmiento Junín

1.1Goals scored per match1.2

1.0Goals conceded per match1.4

66%Matches with over 1.5 goals77%

37%Matches with over 2.5 goals48%

51%Both teams to score55%

29%Clean sheet26%

32%Matches without scoring23%

4.5Corners won per match3.6

2.4Yellow cards per match2.2

Tigre: 41 matches · Sarmiento Junín: 31 matches (all competitions with data).

Tigre at home · Sarmiento Junín away

Tigre at home

7G6E7P

LLLDW

Sarmiento Junín away

4G0E11P

LWLWL

When do they score and concede?

Tigre · goals by minute in 26 matches scored conceded

Sarmiento Junín · goals by minute in 18 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Tigre

Scores first in 10 of 23 matches and wins 7 of them.

Concedes first in 13 and avoids defeat in 2.

Sarmiento Junín

Scores first in 12 of 18 matches and wins 7 of them.

Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 0.

Players in form

Tigre

Jerónimo Domina · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

J. Saralegui · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Tiago Serrago · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches

Sarmiento Junín

J. Renteria · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

Julian Mavilla · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

J. Marabel · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

1Tigre to win

5Draws

3Sarmiento Junín to win

9 matches · 1.6 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-04-25	Sarmiento Junín 1-0 Tigre	Liga Profesional Argentina
2024-08-18	Sarmiento Junín 0-0 Tigre	Liga Profesional Argentina
2024-01-25	Tigre 0-0 Sarmiento Junín	Copa de la Liga Profesional
2023-08-20	Sarmiento Junín 2-0 Tigre	Copa de la Liga Profesional
2023-04-14	Tigre 1-0 Sarmiento Junín	Liga Profesional Argentina
2022-10-04	Sarmiento Junín 2-2 Tigre	Liga Profesional Argentina

Standings

Liga Profesional standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	+14	34
2	River Plate	16	+10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	+4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	+4	28
5	Belgrano Córdoba	16	+4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	0	26
7	Huracan	16	+4	22
8	Racing Club	16	+2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	0	21
10	Tigre	16	+3	20
11	Sarmiento Junín	16	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	-2	18
13	Atlético Tucumán	16	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	-19	5

More stats

Half-time

Tigre: 7 days since last match · Sarmiento Junín: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 03:30 UTC.