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Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction
International · UEFA Europa League
Sunderland
Dinamo ZagrebPre-match probabilities
Thursday, November 5 · 15:00 (Peru time) · Stadium of Light · Referee: Andrea Colombo
Over 1.5 goals
80%- 2+ goals in 9 of 12 Sunderland matches
- Also in 16 of 20 Dinamo Zagreb matches
- Picky expects 3.1 goals (2.2 - 0.9)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Sunderland 2.17 · Dinamo Zagreb 0.94
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.11.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.7 in total · Sunderland 4.4 · Dinamo Zagreb 5.3
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.8 · el árbitro Andrea Colombo saca 3.8 por partido
⏱️ First half
48% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.48
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Sunderland: 12 matches · Dinamo Zagreb: 20 matches (all competitions with data).
Sunderland at home · Dinamo Zagreb away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 3 of 11 matches and wins 2 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 2.
Scores first in 12 of 19 matches and wins 9 of them.
Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 4.
Players in form
Jules Ahoka · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches
Timur Tutierov · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
Enzo Le Fée · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
Dion Drena Beljo · 5 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Luka Stojkovic · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
M. Orsic · 0 goles, 2 assists in 3 matches
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 | Unión St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More stats
16 matches · 3.5 yellows and 0.33 reds per match · 0.17 penalties
Sunderland: 5 days since last match · Dinamo Zagreb: 5 days
J. Angulo, D. Ballard, A. Browne, H. Diarra, M. Ellborg, R. Mundle, J. Ta Bi, C. Talbi, N. Mukiele
S. McKenna, R. Mudrazija, I. Nevistic, N. Nsoki, P. Tabinas, F. Topic, S. Radeljic
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 00:10 UTC.