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Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction

England · Premier League

Sunderland#19 · 8 ptsLLWDD

1 - 0Full time

Chelsea#5 · 16 ptsWDLWW

22%31%47%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Enzo Le Fée 36' (p)

Sunday, November 8 · 09:00 (Peru time) · Stadium of Light · Referee: Jarred Gillett

🎯 Model pick

Chelsea to score

81%

Full data

Chelsea scored in 10 of 12 matches this season
Chelsea average 2.3 goals per match
Sunderland concede 1.5 goals per match

⚡ Summary

47%Chelsea to win@2.13 52%Over 2.5 goals@1.93 57%Both teams to score@1.75 56%Corners +9.5 (10.5)@1.7847%Cards +4.5 (4.6)@2.131-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+4🟨 Nilson AnguloSunderland

90'+2🟨 Wesley FofanaChelsea

90'+1🟨 Régis Le BrisSunderland

90'🟨 Luke O'NienSunderland

88'🔁 Sub: Chemsdine Talbi · Nilson AnguloSunderland

88'🔁 Sub: Enzo Le Fée · Chris RiggSunderland

87'🔁 Sub: Jordan Henderson · Emanuel EmeghaChelsea

79'🔁 Sub: Pep Chavarria · Geovany QuendaChelsea

76'🟨 Moises CaicedoChelsea

67'🔁 Sub: Brian Brobbey · Wilson IsidorSunderland

62'🔁 Sub: Pedro Neto · Danny WelbeckChelsea

62'🔁 Sub: Marco Palestra · Malo GustoChelsea

55'🟨 Pedro NetoChelsea

53'🟨 Brian BrobbeySunderland

50'🟨 Thomas MeunierSunderland

45'🔁 Sub: Levi Colwill · Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira GonçalvesChelsea

36'⚽ Enzo Le Fée (pen.)Sunderland

35'🟨 Levi ColwillChelsea

21'🟨 Jules AhokaSunderland

4'🔁 Sub: Granit Xhaka · Jules AhokaSunderland

Win probability minute by minute

SunderlandDrawChelsea

At kick-off22%31%47%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

22%Sunderland to win@4.47

31%Draw@3.25

47%Chelsea to win@2.13

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Sunderland or draw53%

Chelsea or draw78%

Sunderland to score68%

Chelsea to score81%

Most likely scores

1-114%0-19%1-29%0-09%0-28%

Expected goals per the model: Sunderland 1.13 · Chelsea 1.68

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.81.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.5 in total · Sunderland 5.3 · Chelsea 5.2

66%Over 8.5@1.51

56%Over 9.5@1.78

46%Over 10.5@2.16

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.6 · el árbitro Jarred Gillett saca 5.4 por partido

64%Over 3.5@1.57

47%Over 4.5@2.13

32%Over 5.5@3.09

⏱️ First half

38% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.08

66%Goal in the 1st half@1.52

29%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.42

82%Goal in the 2st half@1.21

⚽ Goals per team

31%Sunderland +1.5@3.21

50%Chelsea +1.5@2.00

11%Sunderland to win to nil@9.50

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

2.58Expected goals (xG)0.55

2Shots on target4

4Saves1

2Offsides0

9Shots10

5Yellow cards4

2Corners2

17Fouls7

0Red cards0

31Possession %69

Goals in the last 10 matches

Sunderland · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.9goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Chelsea · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score3.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

SunderlandChelsea

1.0Goals scored per match2.3

1.5Goals conceded per match1.6

73%Matches with over 1.5 goals100%

33%Matches with over 2.5 goals58%

47%Both teams to score58%

27%Clean sheet25%

33%Matches without scoring17%

5.1Corners won per match5.8

1.8Yellow cards per match1.8

Sunderland: 15 matches · Chelsea: 12 matches (all competitions with data).

Sunderland at home · Chelsea away

Sunderland at home

4G1E3P

LWDLW

Chelsea away

2G1E2P

DWLLW

When do they score and concede?

Sunderland · goals by minute in 15 matches scored conceded

Chelsea · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Sunderland

Scores first in 5 of 14 matches and wins 4 of them.

Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 2.

Chelsea

Scores first in 9 of 12 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Sunderland

Timur Tutierov · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches

Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi · 0 goles, 2 assists in 1 matches

Chemsdine Talbi · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Chelsea

Morgan Rogers · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Jordan Henderson · 3 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

Pedro Neto · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

5Sunderland to win

1Draws

4Chelsea to win

10 matches · 3.2 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-24	Sunderland 2-1 Chelsea	Premier League
2025-10-25	Chelsea 1-2 Sunderland	Premier League
2017-05-21	Chelsea 5-1 Sunderland	Premier League
2016-12-14	Sunderland 0-1 Chelsea	Premier League
2016-05-07	Sunderland 3-2 Chelsea	Premier League
2015-12-19	Chelsea 3-1 Sunderland	Premier League

Standings

Premier League standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	10	+10	27
2	Brighton	10	+19	22
3	Manchester City	10	+8	21
4	Liverpool	10	+4	18
5	Chelsea	10	+3	16
6	Everton	10	+2	16
7	Bournemouth	10	+2	15
8	Brentford	10	+5	14
9	Leeds	10	+2	14
10	Aston Villa	10	-3	13
11	Tottenham	10	-1	12
12	Newcastle	10	-3	12
13	Hull City	10	0	11
14	Ipswich	10	-5	11
15	Fulham	10	-2	10
16	Nottingham Forest	10	-4	9
17	Coventry	10	-9	9
18	Manchester United	10	-5	8
19	Sunderland	10	-9	8
20	Crystal Palace	10	-14	7

More stats

Referee: Jarred Gillett

10 matches · 5.3 yellows and 0.13 reds per match · 0.00 penalties

Half-time

Sunderland: 2 days since last match · Chelsea: 8 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 16:30 UTC.