Home › Austria · Bundesliga › Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction
Austria · Bundesliga
Sturm Graz
Red Bull SalzburgPre-match probabilities
Sunday, November 8 · 11:00 (Peru time) · Stadion Graz-Liebenau · Referee: Walter Altmann
Over 1.5 goals
85%- 2+ goals in 15 of 19 Sturm Graz matches
- Also in 14 of 19 Red Bull Salzburg matches
- Head to head: 3.3 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Sturm Graz 1.51 · Red Bull Salzburg 1.89
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.40.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 10.5 in total · Sturm Graz 4.8 · Red Bull Salzburg 5.7
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.0 · el árbitro Walter Altmann saca 2.6 por partido
⏱️ First half
43% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.46
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Sturm Graz: 19 matches · Red Bull Salzburg: 19 matches (all competitions with data).
Sturm Graz at home · Red Bull Salzburg away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 9 of 18 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 3.
Scores first in 13 of 18 matches and wins 11 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 3.
Players in form
Oumar Diakité · 7 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Simon Seidl · 1 gol, 3 assists in 5 matches
Luca Weinhandl · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
H. Tabakovic · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
J. Lindstrom · 2 goles, 2 assists in 4 matches
S. Kitano · 1 gol, 2 assists in 3 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 3.3 goals per match
| 2026-09-20 | Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| 2026-05-03 | Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| 2026-03-20 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-09 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-09-20 | Red Bull Salzburg 0-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| 2025-05-09 | Sturm Graz 4-2 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 12 | +30 | 33 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 12 | +24 | 30 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 12 | +15 | 25 |
| 4 | TSV Hartberg | 12 | +4 | 20 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 12 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Ried | 12 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | WSG Wattens | 12 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 12 | -15 | 11 |
| 9 | SCR Altach | 12 | -9 | 10 |
| 10 | Grazer AK | 12 | -20 | 10 |
| 11 | Austria Vienna | 12 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 12 | -18 | 6 |
More stats
6 matches · 2.6 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.40 penalties
Sturm Graz: 2 days since last match · Red Bull Salzburg: 2 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 18:30 UTC.