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Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction
International · UEFA Europa League
Sturm Graz
CeljePre-match probabilities
Thursday, November 5 · 15:00 (Peru time) · Stadion Graz-Liebenau · Referee: Giorgi Kruashvili
Over 1.5 goals
79%- 2+ goals in 14 of 18 Sturm Graz matches
- Also in 9 of 9 Celje matches
- Picky expects 3.0 goals (2.1 - 0.9)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Sturm Graz 2.10 · Celje 0.94
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.04.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 10.2 in total · Sturm Graz 5.6 · Celje 4.6
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.5 · el árbitro Giorgi Kruashvili saca 4.0 por partido
⏱️ First half
46% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.41
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Sturm Graz: 18 matches · Celje: 9 matches (all competitions with data).
Sturm Graz at home · Celje away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 9 of 17 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 3.
Scores first in 3 of 9 matches and wins 1 of them.
Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 3.
Players in form
Oumar Diakité · 5 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Simon Seidl · 1 gol, 3 assists in 5 matches
Luca Weinhandl · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches
Svit Seslar · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Blaž Kramer · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches
A. Kučys · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 | Unión St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More stats
5 matches · 4.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties
Sturm Graz: 4 days since last match · Celje: 14 days
N. Geyrhofer, L. Grgic, S. Jatta, D. Khudyakov, O. Kiteishvili, G. Mamageishvili, F. Rozga, E. Soglo, N. Weiper, S. Wlodarczyk
I. Calusic, J. Pisek, R. Pozeg, Z. L. Sega, S. Sluga, D. Vuklisevic
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 00:20 UTC.