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St. Truiden vs Brann prediction

International · UEFA Europa Conference League
St. Truiden badgeSt. Truiden#10 · 7 ptsLLWWL
1 - 1Full time
Brann badgeBrann#6 · 7 ptsWLWLW

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ N. Ishiwatari 48'⚽ U. Mathisen 79'

Thursday, November 5 · 15:00 (Peru time) · Stayen · Referee: Oliver Reitala

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

84%
Partial data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

89'🟨 S. MagnussonBrann
87'🔁 Sub: U. Mathisen · V. DragsnesBrann
79'⚽ U. Mathisen assist K. M. IngasonBrann
78'🔁 Sub: F. Soelle · S. BazdarSt. Truiden
77'🟨 A. MujaSt. Truiden
64'🔁 Sub: N. Mbuku · A. MujaSt. Truiden
63'🔁 Sub: J. Torsvik · J. SoltvedtBrann
62'🔁 Sub: N. Castro · S. MagnussonBrann
59'🔁 Sub: S. Shinkawa · R. MerlenSt. Truiden
48'⚽ N. IshiwatariSt. Truiden
46'🔁 Sub: T. Pedersen · K. EriksenBrann

Win probability minute by minute

St. TruidenDrawBrann
At kick-off53%25%22%Full time0%100%0%
0%25%50%75%100% ⚽⚽0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

53%St. Truiden to win@1.89
25%Draw@4.01
22%Brann to win@4.50
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams to score64%
St. Truiden or draw78%
Brann or draw47%
St. Truiden to score86%
Brann to score72%

Most likely scores

1-111%2-19%2-07%1-07%2-26%

Expected goals per the model: St. Truiden 2.09 · Brann 1.33

How many goals will there be?

3%0 goals11%1 goals19%2 goals22%3 goals19%4 goals26%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.42.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.7 in total · St. Truiden 5.4 · Brann 5.3

68%Over 8.5@1.48
58%Over 9.5@1.73
48%Over 10.5@2.08
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.1

56%Over 3.5@1.78
39%Over 4.5@2.54
26%Over 5.5@3.92

⏱️ First half

42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.44

76%Goal in the 1st half@1.31
42%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.37
86%Goal in the 2st half@1.16

⚽ Goals per team

62%St. Truiden +1.5@1.62
38%Brann +1.5@2.61
22%St. Truiden to win to nil@4.53

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

5Shots on target5
17Shots9
13Fouls10
4Corners7
0Offsides1
43Possession %57
1Yellow cards1
4Saves4
1.08Expected goals (xG)0.64

Goals in the last 10 matches

St. Truiden · last 10 matches
5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score3.3goals per match
2.5vs RAAL La Louvière: 4-0 4-0 en SK Beveren: 0-2 0-2 vs KVC Westerlo: 0-2 0-2 en KV Mechelen: 3-4 3-4 ambosvs FC Iberia 1999: 2-0 2-0 en FC Midtjylland: 1-0 1-0 en Club Brugge KV: 2-3 2-3 ambosvs OH Leuven: 1-2 1-2 ambosvs Brann: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Zulte Waregem: 4-1 4-1 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Brann · last 10 matches
7/10+2.5 goals8/10both teams to score3.5goals per match
2.5en Start: 0-2 0-2 vs Bodo/Glimt: 2-1 2-1 ambosvs Viking: 0-2 0-2 vs Lincoln Red Imps FC: 2-1 2-1 ambosen Valerenga: 1-3 1-3 ambosen Kauno Žalgiris: 4-1 4-1 ambosen Lillestrom: 2-3 2-3 ambosvs Molde: 3-2 3-2 ambosat St. Truiden: 1-1 1-1 ambosen Fredrikstad: 2-2 2-2 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

St. TruidenBrann
1.7Goals scored per match1.9
1.8Goals conceded per match1.6
86%Matches with over 1.5 goals91%
57%Matches with over 2.5 goals79%
50%Both teams to score79%
29%Clean sheet9%
21%Matches without scoring15%
6.1Corners won per match6.7
2.1Yellow cards per match1.9

St. Truiden: 14 matches · Brann: 33 matches (all competitions with data).

St. Truiden at home · Brann away

St. Truiden at home
3G1E3P
LWLWL
Brann away
5G4E7P
LWLLD

When do they score and concede?

St. Truiden · goals by minute in 14 matches scored conceded
300-150616-305531-455746-604361-757476-90
Brann · goals by minute in 28 matches scored conceded
650-157916-3010731-456446-609761-75161176-90

The first goal

St. Truiden

Scores first in 7 of 14 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 1.

Brann

Scores first in 14 of 27 matches and wins 11 of them.

Concedes first in 13 and avoids defeat in 4.

Players in form

St. Truiden

F. Soelle · 2 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches

I. Sebaoui · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

R. Vanwesemael · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

Brann

Noah Jean Holm · 5 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Kristian Eriksen · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

N. Castro · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Standings

UEFA Europa Conference League standings
#TeamPGDPts
1FC Lugano3+79
2Panathinaikos3+69
3Twente3+69
4Monaco3+69
5Brighton3+57
6Brann3+47
7FC Copenhagen3+47
8Universitatea Craiova3+47
9Mjallby AIF3+47
10St. Truiden3+37
11Ajax3+66
12Trabzonspor3+36
13HNK Hajduk Split3+16
14SC Freiburg3-16
15FK Crvena Zvezda304
16Atalanta304
17SC Braga3-14
18Gent3-14
19Riga303
20FC Thun303
21Borac Banja Luka3-13
22Lincoln Red Imps FC3-33
23FK Jablonec3-12
24Aarhus3-12
25FC Nordsjaelland3-22
26Egnatia Rrogozhinë3-22
27Kairat Almaty3-42
28CSKA Sofia3-21
29FC Iberia 19993-31
30Pafos3-41
31Getafe3-41
32Heart Of Midlothian3-41
33KuPS3-41
34FC Midtjylland3-61
35Inter Club d'Escaldes3-50
36Kauno Žalgiris3-100

More stats

Referee: O. Reitala

2 matches · 5.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 1.00 penalties

Half-time

St. Truiden: 4 days since last match · Brann: 4 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 00:20 UTC.

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