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ST Johnstone vs Dundee prediction

Scotland · Premiership

ST Johnstone#7 · 17 ptsDDLDW

2 - 1Full time

Dundee#5 · 17 ptsWLDWW

27%32%40%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Josh Campbell 5'⚽ Joe Westley 47'⚽ Kai Fotheringham 72'

Saturday, 7 November · 10:00 (Peru time) · McDiarmid Park

🎯 Model pick

Dundee to score

79%

Partial data

Dundee scored in 10 of 11 matches this season
Dundee average 1.6 goals per match
ST Johnstone concede 1.6 goals per match

⚡ Summary

40%Dundee to win@2.48 53%Over 2.5 goals@1.88 60%Both teams to score@1.65 62%Corners +9.5 (11.1)@1.6224%Cards +4.5 (3.2)@4.211-1Most likely score · 15%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

88'🟨 Brad HallidayDundee

87'🔁 Sub: Drey Wright · Brad HallidayDundee

80'🔁 Sub: Kai Fotheringham · Macaulay TaitST Johnstone

72'⚽ Kai FotheringhamST Johnstone

72'🔁 Sub: Alan Forrest · Charlie ReillyDundee

69'🟨 Ethan HamiltonDundee

60'🟨 Drey WrightDundee

60'🔁 Sub: Taylor Steven · Sam StantonST Johnstone

59'🔁 Sub: Danny schmidt · Josh FowlerST Johnstone

56'🟨 Taylor StevenST Johnstone

47'⚽ Joe WestleyDundee

45'🔁 Sub: Joseph Bevan · Zan BesirDundee

45'🔁 Sub: Callum Jones · Ryan FinniganDundee

45'🔁 Sub: Bradley·Fink · Joe WestleyDundee

14'🔁 Sub: Božo Mikulić · Daniel FinlaysonST Johnstone

5'⚽ Josh Campbell assist Enes AlicST Johnstone

Win probability minute by minute

ST JohnstoneDrawDundee

At kick-off27%32%40%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

27%ST Johnstone to win@3.64

32%Draw@3.10

40%Dundee to win@2.48

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score60%

ST Johnstone or draw60%

Dundee or draw73%

ST Johnstone to score73%

Dundee to score79%

Most likely scores

1-115%0-08%1-28%0-17%2-27%

Expected goals per the model: ST Johnstone 1.30 · Dundee 1.58

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.88.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 11.1 in total · ST Johnstone 4.6 · Dundee 6.5

71%Over 8.5@1.40

62%Over 9.5@1.62

52%Over 10.5@1.92

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.2

39%Over 3.5@2.57

24%Over 4.5@4.21

13%Over 5.5@7.45

⏱️ First half

42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.21

70%Goal in the 1st half@1.42

34%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.93

81%Goal in the 2st half@1.23

⚽ Goals per team

37%ST Johnstone +1.5@2.68

47%Dundee +1.5@2.13

12%ST Johnstone to win to nil@8.01

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

4Shots on target3

2Saves2

3Offsides0

17Shots8

1Yellow cards3

4Corners5

12Fouls13

0Red cards0

57Possession %44

1.62Expected goals (xG)0.70

Goals in the last 10 matches

ST Johnstone · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score2.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Dundee · last 10 matches

8/10+2.5 goals9/10both teams to score3.0goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

ST JohnstoneDundee

1.3Goals scored per match1.6

1.6Goals conceded per match1.2

75%Matches with over 1.5 goals91%

50%Matches with over 2.5 goals64%

67%Both teams to score73%

8%Clean sheet18%

25%Matches without scoring9%

3.0Corners won per match5.1

1.5Yellow cards per match1.4

ST Johnstone: 12 matches · Dundee: 11 matches (all competitions with data).

ST Johnstone at home · Dundee away

ST Johnstone at home

2G3E1P

DDDLW

Dundee away

2G0E3P

LWLWL

When do they score and concede?

ST Johnstone · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded

Dundee · goals by minute in 11 matches scored conceded

The first goal

ST Johnstone

Scores first in 5 of 12 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 3.

Dundee

Scores first in 7 of 11 matches and wins 4 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

ST Johnstone

J. Fowler · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Danny schmidt · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Josh Campbell · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Dundee

Ashley Hay · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Bradley·Fink · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Ethan Hamilton · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

1ST Johnstone to win

5Draws

4Dundee to win

10 matches · 2.5 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-09-02	Dundee 1-1 ST Johnstone	Premiership
2025-05-18	ST Johnstone 0-2 Dundee	Premiership
2025-03-01	Dundee 1-1 ST Johnstone	Premiership
2025-01-05	ST Johnstone 1-3 Dundee	Premiership
2024-10-26	Dundee 1-2 ST Johnstone	Premiership
2024-03-30	ST Johnstone 1-2 Dundee	Premiership

Standings

Premiership standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Celtic	13	+18	31
2	Rangers	12	+12	27
3	Falkirk	13	+6	21
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	+4	20
5	Dundee	12	+3	17
6	Dundee Utd	12	0	17
7	ST Johnstone	13	-3	17
8	ST Mirren	13	-10	14
9	Motherwell	13	-6	13
10	Hibernian	12	-2	11
11	Aberdeen	12	-6	11
12	Kilmarnock	13	-16	9

More stats

Half-time

ST Johnstone: 7 days since last match · Dundee: 9 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 17:30 UTC.