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Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca prediction

Peru · Liga 1

Sport Boys#11 · 46 ptsDWWLL

0 - 0Full time

UTC Cajamarca#18 · 19 ptsLWLLL

56%28%15%

Pre-match probabilities

🟥 Cristián Molins 90'

Sunday, November 8 · 15:30 (Peru time) · Miguel Grau Stadium · Referee: Augusto Alfredo Menendez Laos

🎯 Model pick

Sport Boys or draw

85%

Full data

At home, Sport Boys are 9W 5D 2L this season
UTC Cajamarca in poor form: 4 defeats in their last 5
#11 in the table, UTC Cajamarca #18

⚡ Summary

56%Sport Boys to win@1.78 50%Over 2.5 goals@2.01 52%Both teams to score@1.92 43%Corners +9.5 (9.2)@2.3170%Cards +4.5 (6.2)@1.421-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'🟥 Cristián MolinsUTC Cajamarca

89'🟨 Pablo ErustesSport Boys

86'🟨 Rolando DiazSport Boys

85'🔁 Sub: Yuriel Celi · Rolando DiazSport Boys

85'🔁 Sub: Adolfo Muñoz · Jhosep NunezUTC Cajamarca

81'🔁 Sub: Dylan Caro · Gilmar ParedesUTC Cajamarca

79'🟨 David DiosesUTC Cajamarca

75'🟨 Mathias LlontopSport Boys

69'🔁 Sub: Marlon de Jesús · Abdiel ArroyoUTC Cajamarca

68'🔁 Sub: Percy Liza · Pablo ErustesSport Boys

62'🟨 Francesco CavagnaUTC Cajamarca

61'🔁 Sub: Christian Cueva · Miguel TraucoSport Boys

61'🔁 Sub: Jostin Alarcon · José DaveySport Boys

45'🔁 Sub: Luis Arce · Arquímedes FigueraUTC Cajamarca

24'🟨 Manuel GanozaUTC Cajamarca

Win probability minute by minute

Sport BoysDrawUTC Cajamarca

At kick-off56%28%15%Full time0%100%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

56%Sport Boys to win@1.78

28%Draw@3.52

15%UTC Cajamarca to win@6.53

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score52%

Sport Boys or draw85%

UTC Cajamarca or draw44%

Sport Boys to score83%

UTC Cajamarca to score59%

Most likely scores

1-113%1-011%2-010%0-09%2-19%

Expected goals per the model: Sport Boys 1.82 · UTC Cajamarca 0.90

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.72.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.2 in total · Sport Boys 4.8 · UTC Cajamarca 4.4

54%Over 8.5@1.86

43%Over 9.5@2.31

34%Over 10.5@2.96

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 6.2

83%Over 3.5@1.21

70%Over 4.5@1.42

56%Over 5.5@1.77

⏱️ First half

42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.14

68%Goal in the 1st half@1.47

31%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.18

79%Goal in the 2st half@1.26

⚽ Goals per team

54%Sport Boys +1.5@1.84

23%UTC Cajamarca +1.5@4.40

32%Sport Boys to win to nil@3.15

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

3Shots on target1

1Saves3

19Shots8

3Yellow cards3

7Corners7

0Offsides1

19Fouls22

0Red cards0

48Possession %52

1.35Expected goals (xG)0.31

Goals in the last 10 matches

Sport Boys · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

UTC Cajamarca · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.3goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Sport BoysUTC Cajamarca

1.2Goals scored per match1.2

1.1Goals conceded per match1.8

56%Matches with over 1.5 goals78%

34%Matches with over 2.5 goals59%

44%Both teams to score66%

41%Clean sheet13%

25%Matches without scoring28%

4.7Corners won per match4.1

2.8Yellow cards per match2.7

Sport Boys: 32 matches · UTC Cajamarca: 32 matches (all competitions with data).

Sport Boys at home · UTC Cajamarca away

Sport Boys at home

9G5E2P

WLWWW

UTC Cajamarca away

3G2E11P

WLLLL

When do they score and concede?

Sport Boys · goals by minute in 29 matches scored conceded

UTC Cajamarca · goals by minute in 29 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Sport Boys

Scores first in 13 of 26 matches and wins 9 of them.

Concedes first in 13 and avoids defeat in 4.

UTC Cajamarca

Scores first in 6 of 27 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 21 and avoids defeat in 4.

Players in form

Sport Boys

Christian Cueva · 3 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

Percy Liza · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Jostin Alarcon · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

UTC Cajamarca

Adolfo Muñoz · 0 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches

Marlon de Jesús · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

David Dioses · 0 goles, 2 assists in 3 matches

Head to head

3Sport Boys to win

6Draws

1UTC Cajamarca to win

10 matches · 2.9 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-23	UTC Cajamarca 0-0 Sport Boys	Primera División
2025-11-02	Sport Boys 2-2 UTC Cajamarca	Primera División
2025-06-28	UTC Cajamarca 1-1 Sport Boys	Primera División
2024-10-27	Sport Boys 1-1 UTC Cajamarca	Primera División
2024-05-20	UTC Cajamarca 2-4 Sport Boys	Primera División
2023-09-29	UTC Cajamarca 1-1 Sport Boys	Primera División

Standings

Liga 1 standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	+30	69
2	Universitario	33	+20	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	+18	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	+15	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	+15	51
6	Cusco	33	-1	51
7	Cienciano	33	+8	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	-1	50
9	Alianza Atlético	33	+1	49
10	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	33	-12	48
11	Sport Boys	33	+2	46
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	-11	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	-3	37
14	Atlético Grau	33	-9	37
15	ADT	33	-12	32
16	FC Cajamarca	33	-19	31
17	UCV Moquegua	33	-21	30
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	-20	19

More stats

Half-time

Sport Boys: 3 days since last match · UTC Cajamarca: 6 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC.