PickManiaAI predictions

Home › International · UEFA Nations League › Serbia vs Alemania

Serbia vs Germany prediction

International · UEFA Nations League
Serbia badgeSerbia#4 · 0 ptsLLLLL
14:45Fri Nov 13
Germany badgeGermany#3 · 5 ptsDWLDW

Probabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo

Friday, November 13 · 14:45 (Peru time)

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Germany to win

74%
Partial data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

📝 Preview

Serbia and Germany meet in the UEFA Nations League.

The PickMania model gives Serbia a 11% chance of winning, 16% for the draw and 74% for Germany.

3.5 total goals are expected (0.9 from Serbia and 2.6 from Germany): over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance and both teams to score 55%.

The most likely score is 0-2.

Probabilities

11%Serbia to win@9.35
16%Draw@6.38
74%Germany to win@1.36
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Both teams to score55%
Serbia or draw26%
Germany or draw89%
Serbia to score58%
Germany to score92%

Most likely scores

0-211%1-29%0-39%0-18%1-38%

Expected goals per the model: Serbia 0.88 · Germany 2.58

How many goals will there be?

3%0 goals11%1 goals19%2 goals22%3 goals19%4 goals27%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.46.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.0 in total · Serbia 3.7 · Germany 6.3

61%Over 8.5@1.63
51%Over 9.5@1.95
41%Over 10.5@2.42
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 2.7

29%Over 3.5@3.41
16%Over 4.5@6.13
8%Over 5.5@11.87

⏱️ First half

46% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.58

80%Goal in the 1st half@1.26
47%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.13
85%Goal in the 2st half@1.18

⚽ Goals per team

22%Serbia +1.5@4.54
73%Alemania +1.5@1.37
4%Serbia to win to nil@22.94

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Serbia · last 8 matches
7/8+2.5 goals5/8both teams to score3.3goals per match
2.5en España: 0-3 0-3 vs Arabia Saudí: 2-1 2-1 ambosen Cape Verde Islands: 0-3 0-3 en México: 1-5 1-5 ambosvs Grecia: 1-2 1-2 ambosvs Países Bajos: 1-2 1-2 ambosat Germany: 0-2 0-2 en Países Bajos: 1-2 1-2 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Germany · last 8 matches
4/8+2.5 goals4/8both teams to score2.8goals per match
2.5en Suiza: 4-3 4-3 ambosvs Ghana: 2-1 2-1 ambosvs Finlandia: 4-0 4-0 en Estados Unidos: 2-1 2-1 ambosen Países Bajos: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Grecia: 0-1 0-1 vs Serbia: 2-0 2-0 en Grecia: 0-0 0-0

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

SerbiaGermany
0.8Goals scored per match1.9
2.5Goals conceded per match0.9
100%Matches with over 1.5 goals75%
88%Matches with over 2.5 goals50%
63%Both teams to score50%
0%Clean sheet38%
38%Matches without scoring25%
3.1Corners won per match6.9
1.6Yellow cards per match1.1

Serbia: 8 matches · Germany: 8 matches (all competitions with data).

Serbia at home · Germany away

Serbia at home
1G0E2P
LLW
Germany away
2G2E0P
DDWW

When do they score and concede?

Serbia · goals by minute in 8 matches scored conceded
120-151216-301531-451246-602761-750276-90
Germany · goals by minute in 8 matches scored conceded
100-151116-305231-453046-603261-752276-90

The first goal

Serbia

Scores first in 2 of 8 matches and wins 0 of them.

Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 1.

Germany

Scores first in 5 of 7 matches and wins 4 of them.

Concedes first in 2 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Serbia

Petar Stanić · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches

Mihajlo Cvetković · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

L. Jovic · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Germany

Kai Havertz · 1 gol, 1 assists in 2 matches

Leroy Sané · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches

T. Bischof · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

Head to head

1Serbia to win
1Draws
1Germany to win

3 matches · 1.7 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-10-01Germany 2-0 SerbiaUEFA Nations League
2019-03-20Germany 1-1 SerbiaFriendlies
2010-06-18Germany 0-1 SerbiaWorld Cup

Standings

UEFA Nations League standings
#TeamPGDPts
1Netherlands4+28
2Greece4+28
3Germany4+15
4Serbia4-50

More stats

Half-time

Serbia: 40 days since last match · Germany: 40 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.

Get the AI Top Picks in your inbox

Every morning, the day's picks with their data. Free, and you can unsubscribe any time.