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Serbia vs Germany prediction
International · UEFA Nations League
Serbia
GermanyProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Friday, November 13 · 14:45 (Peru time)
Germany to win
74%- Germany unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 (D W L D W)
- Away, Germany are 2W 2D 0L this season
- Serbia in poor form: 5 defeats in their last 5
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
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Serbia and Germany meet in the UEFA Nations League.
The PickMania model gives Serbia a 11% chance of winning, 16% for the draw and 74% for Germany.
3.5 total goals are expected (0.9 from Serbia and 2.6 from Germany): over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance and both teams to score 55%.
The most likely score is 0-2.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Serbia 0.88 · Germany 2.58
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.46.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 10.0 in total · Serbia 3.7 · Germany 6.3
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 2.7
⏱️ First half
46% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.58
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Serbia: 8 matches · Germany: 8 matches (all competitions with data).
Serbia at home · Germany away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 2 of 8 matches and wins 0 of them.
Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 1.
Scores first in 5 of 7 matches and wins 4 of them.
Concedes first in 2 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
Petar Stanić · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches
Mihajlo Cvetković · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches
L. Jovic · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
Kai Havertz · 1 gol, 1 assists in 2 matches
Leroy Sané · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches
T. Bischof · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches
Head to head
3 matches · 1.7 goals per match
| 2026-10-01 | Germany 2-0 Serbia | UEFA Nations League |
| 2019-03-20 | Germany 1-1 Serbia | Friendlies |
| 2010-06-18 | Germany 0-1 Serbia | World Cup |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | -5 | 0 |
More stats
Serbia: 40 days since last match · Germany: 40 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.