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São Bernardo vs Athletic Club prediction
Brazil · Serie B
São Bernardo
Athletic ClubProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Thursday, November 12 · 18:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Primeiro de Maio
São Bernardo to score
79%- São Bernardo scored in 32 of 40 matches this season
- São Bernardo average 1.4 goals per match
- Athletic Club concede 1.2 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
São Bernardo and Athletic Club meet in the Serie B.
The PickMania model gives São Bernardo a 50% chance of winning, 27% for the draw and 24% for Athletic Club.
2.7 total goals are expected (1.6 from São Bernardo and 1.0 from Athletic Club): over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance and both teams to score 51%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: São Bernardo 1.61 · Athletic Club 1.04
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.65.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 10.4 in total · São Bernardo 5.2 · Athletic Club 5.1
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.7
⏱️ First half
41% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.10
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
São Bernardo: 40 matches · Athletic Club: 42 matches (all competitions with data).
São Bernardo at home · Athletic Club away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 19 of 37 matches and wins 13 of them.
Concedes first in 18 and avoids defeat in 8.
Scores first in 20 of 38 matches and wins 11 of them.
Concedes first in 18 and avoids defeat in 7.
Players in form
Fabrício Daniel · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
Lucas Fernandes · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches
Felipe Garcia · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches
Joao Miguel · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Kauan Rodrigues da Silva · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Gustavo Silva · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches
Head to head
2 matches · 4.0 goals per match
| 2026-07-23 | Athletic Club 2-1 São Bernardo | Serie B |
| 2024-06-29 | Athletic Club 1-4 São Bernardo | Serie C |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 37 | +34 | 70 |
| 2 | Juventude | 37 | +23 | 68 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 37 | +15 | 66 |
| 4 | Criciuma | 37 | +7 | 62 |
| 5 | Fortaleza EC | 37 | +11 | 62 |
| 6 | CRB | 37 | +6 | 58 |
| 7 | Goias | 37 | -2 | 58 |
| 8 | Atlético Goianiense | 37 | +10 | 58 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 37 | +8 | 55 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 11 | São Bernardo | 37 | +10 | 52 |
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 37 | +6 | 51 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 37 | +2 | 47 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 37 | 0 | 47 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 37 | -9 | 46 |
| 16 | Ceara | 37 | -9 | 43 |
| 17 | Avai | 37 | -12 | 40 |
| 18 | Londrina | 37 | -13 | 32 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 37 | -28 | 29 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 37 | -58 | 15 |
More stats
São Bernardo: 5 days since last match · Athletic Club: 4 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.