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Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto prediction

Colombia · Primera A

Santa Fe#7 · 29 ptsLLWWL

5 - 0Full time

Deportivo Pasto#3 · 34 ptsWLWLL

83%11%6%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ F. Fagundez 10'⚽ H. Rodallega 58' (p)⚽ H. Rodallega 62'⚽ H. Rodallega 71'

Sunday, November 8 · 14:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin · Referee: Ferney Ossa Orozco

🎯 Model pick

Santa Fe to win

83%

Full data

At home, Santa Fe are 12W 11D 3L this season
Deportivo Pasto in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5
Fagundez is on fire: 3 goals in his last 4 matches

⚡ Summary

83%Santa Fe to win@1.21 68%Over 2.5 goals@1.48 36%Both teams to score@2.76 34%Corners +9.5 (8.3)@2.9367%Cards +4.5 (5.9)@1.502-0Most likely score · 12%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

78'🔁 Sub: J. Perlaza · D. ChillamboDeportivo Pasto

73'🔁 Sub: F. Martinez · J. QuinteroDeportivo Pasto

73'🔁 Sub: J. Revollo · J. ArboledaDeportivo Pasto

71'⚽ H. Rodallega assist J. ObrianSanta Fe

71'🔁 Sub: J. Obrian · C. PortocarreroSanta Fe

65'🔁 Sub: D. Torres · K. D. Toscano BassaSanta Fe

65'🔁 Sub: P. Preciado · T. BlandonDeportivo Pasto

65'🔁 Sub: H. Valencia · S. DuranDeportivo Pasto

64'🔁 Sub: E. Rodriguez · O. FernandezSanta Fe

62'⚽ H. RodallegaSanta Fe

58'🟨 S. PortesDeportivo Pasto

58'⚽ H. Rodallega (pen.)Santa Fe

46'🔁 Sub: E. Olivera · I. R. Scarpeta SilgadoSanta Fe

24'🟨 H. GoyesDeportivo Pasto

22'🔁 Sub: C. Mafla · L. PalaciosSanta Fe

10'⚽ F. Fagundez assist C. MaflaSanta Fe

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

83%Santa Fe to win@1.21

11%Draw@8.82

6%Deportivo Pasto to win@17.12

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score36%

Santa Fe or draw94%

Deportivo Pasto or draw17%

Santa Fe to score94%

Deportivo Pasto to score47%

Most likely scores

2-012%3-011%1-09%4-08%2-18%

Expected goals per the model: Santa Fe 2.90 · Deportivo Pasto 0.64

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.54.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 8.3 in total · Santa Fe 4.0 · Deportivo Pasto 4.4

44%Over 8.5@2.26

34%Over 9.5@2.93

26%Over 10.5@3.92

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 5.9

80%Over 3.5@1.25

67%Over 4.5@1.50

52%Over 5.5@1.91

⏱️ First half

41% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.44

76%Goal in the 1st half@1.31

42%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.37

88%Goal in the 2st half@1.14

⚽ Goals per team

79%Santa Fe +1.5@1.27

14%Deportivo Pasto +1.5@7.39

50%Santa Fe to win to nil@2.02

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

6Shots on target1

11Shots6

6Fouls8

1Corners2

1Offsides2

59Possession %41

0Yellow cards2

1Saves3

2.43Expected goals (xG)0.51

Goals in the last 10 matches

Santa Fe · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score2.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Deportivo Pasto · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals1/10both teams to score2.0goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Santa FeDeportivo Pasto

1.4Goals scored per match1.1

1.0Goals conceded per match1.4

75%Matches with over 1.5 goals68%

42%Matches with over 2.5 goals47%

60%Both teams to score45%

25%Clean sheet32%

23%Matches without scoring32%

4.3Corners won per match4.3

2.3Yellow cards per match3.1

Santa Fe: 52 matches · Deportivo Pasto: 38 matches (all competitions with data).

Santa Fe at home · Deportivo Pasto away

Santa Fe at home

12G11E3P

WWLWD

Deportivo Pasto away

6G4E9P

LWLLW

When do they score and concede?

Santa Fe · goals by minute in 46 matches scored conceded

Deportivo Pasto · goals by minute in 31 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Santa Fe

Scores first in 25 of 42 matches and wins 17 of them.

Concedes first in 17 and avoids defeat in 7.

Deportivo Pasto

Scores first in 14 of 29 matches and wins 9 of them.

Concedes first in 15 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

Santa Fe

F. Fagundez · 3 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

L. Palacios · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

H. Rodallega · 0 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Deportivo Pasto

E. C. Serje Orozco · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

J. Mendez · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

H. Mancilla · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

4Santa Fe to win

2Draws

4Deportivo Pasto to win

10 matches · 2.2 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-04-23	Deportivo Pasto 1-2 Santa Fe	Primera A
2025-09-20	Deportivo Pasto 1-1 Santa Fe	Primera A
2025-04-05	Santa Fe 1-1 Deportivo Pasto	Primera A
2024-12-02	Santa Fe 1-2 Deportivo Pasto	Primera A
2024-11-29	Deportivo Pasto 1-0 Santa Fe	Primera A
2024-07-17	Santa Fe 2-1 Deportivo Pasto	Primera A

Standings

Primera A standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Atlético Nacional	19	+20	40
2	Junior	19	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	+4	34
4	América de Cali	19	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	-14	17
18	Chico	19	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	-17	10

More stats

Referee: F. Ossa Orozco

2 matches · 6.5 yellows and 0.50 reds per match · 0.00 penalties

Half-time

Santa Fe: 3 days since last match · Deportivo Pasto: 4 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 21:30 UTC.