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Sandefjord vs Molde prediction

Norway · Eliteserien

Sandefjord#13 · 28 ptsWLLDW

5 - 5Full time

Molde#5 · 44 ptsLWWDL

27%24%50%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Evangelos Patoulidis 1'⚽ Vetle Walle Egeli 9'⚽ Caleb Sery 19'⚽ Evangelos Patoulidis 25'⚽ Kristian Lonebu 28'⚽ Kristian Lonebu 35'⚽ Gustav Højbjerg 45' (p.p.)⚽ Evangelos Patoulidis 69'⚽ Sondre Granaas 89'

Sunday, 8 November · 11:00 (Peru time) · Sandefjord Arena · Referee: Mohammad Usman Aslam

🎯 Model pick

Sandefjord to score

80%

Full data

Molde concede 1.6 goals per match
Molde kept a clean sheet in only 4 of 25
Dunsby is on fire: 2 goals in his last 4 matches

⚡ Summary

50%Molde to win@2.01 72%Over 2.5 goals@1.38 72%Both teams to score@1.39 60%Corners +9.5 (10.9)@1.6533%Cards +4.5 (3.7)@3.071-1Most likely score · 9%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+4🔁 Sub: Evangelos Patoulidis · Foster ApetorgborSandefjord

90'+4🔁 Sub: Oscar Forsmo Kapskarmo · Sebastian Holm MathisenSandefjord

89'⚽ Sondre Granaas assist Mats Møller DæhliMolde

88'🔁 Sub: Caleb Sery · Trent Kone-DohertyMolde

88'🔁 Sub: Kristian Lonebu · Jalal AbdullaiMolde

77'🔁 Sub: Daniel Daga · Mats Møller DæhliMolde

77'🔁 Sub: Sander Hestetun Kilen · Oskar Spiten NysaeterMolde

77'🟨 Halldor StenevikMolde

76'🔁 Sub: Sander Risan Mörk · Jakob Vester NielsenSandefjord

75'🔁 Sub: Jakob Maslo Dunsby · Bendik Slotfeldt BerntsenSandefjord

69'⚽ Evangelos Patoulidis assist Vetle Walle EgeliSandefjord

67'🔁 Sub: Martin Linnes · Halldor StenevikMolde

67'🟨 Jakob Maslo DunsbySandefjord

45'+3⚽ Gustav Højbjerg (own goal)Molde

45'+1🟨 Daniel DagaMolde

35'⚽ Kristian Lonebu assist Martin LinnesMolde

28'⚽ Kristian Lonebu assist Samukele KabiniMolde

25'⚽ Evangelos PatoulidisSandefjord

19'⚽ Caleb SeryMolde

9'⚽ Vetle Walle Egeli assist Evangelos PatoulidisSandefjord

1'⚽ Evangelos PatoulidisSandefjord

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

27%Sandefjord to win@3.74

24%Draw@4.23

50%Molde to win@2.01

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score72%

Sandefjord or draw50%

Molde or draw73%

Sandefjord to score80%

Molde to score89%

Most likely scores

1-19%1-28%2-27%1-36%2-16%

Expected goals per the model: Sandefjord 1.64 · Molde 2.23

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.87.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.9 in total · Sandefjord 5.0 · Molde 5.9

70%Over 8.5@1.43

60%Over 9.5@1.65

51%Over 10.5@1.97

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.7 · el árbitro Mohammad Usman Aslam saca 3.2 por partido

49%Over 3.5@2.04

33%Over 4.5@3.07

20%Over 5.5@5.00

⏱️ First half

48% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.84

84%Goal in the 1st half@1.19

55%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@1.82

87%Goal in the 2st half@1.15

⚽ Goals per team

49%Sandefjord +1.5@2.05

65%Molde +1.5@1.53

8%Sandefjord to win to nil@12.53

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

8Shots on target9

4Saves1

2Offsides3

22Shots24

1Yellow cards2

3Corners13

13Fouls14

0Red cards0

32Possession %68

2.14Expected goals (xG)2.91

Goals in the last 10 matches

Sandefjord · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Molde · last 10 matches

9/10+2.5 goals9/10both teams to score5.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

SandefjordMolde

1.0Goals scored per match2.4

1.4Goals conceded per match1.6

68%Matches with over 1.5 goals88%

44%Matches with over 2.5 goals72%

48%Both teams to score76%

24%Clean sheet16%

36%Matches without scoring8%

5.3Corners won per match5.6

2.0Yellow cards per match2.0

Sandefjord: 25 matches · Molde: 25 matches (all competitions with data).

Sandefjord at home · Molde away

Sandefjord at home

3G5E4P

LWDDL

Molde away

4G3E5P

LDWWL

When do they score and concede?

Sandefjord · goals by minute in 25 matches scored conceded

Molde · goals by minute in 25 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Sandefjord

Scores first in 10 of 23 matches and wins 7 of them.

Concedes first in 13 and avoids defeat in 1.

Molde

Scores first in 13 of 25 matches and wins 11 of them.

Concedes first in 12 and avoids defeat in 4.

Players in form

Sandefjord

Jakob Maslo Dunsby · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

Oscar Forsmo Kapskarmo · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

Evangelos Patoulidis · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Molde

Kristian Lonebu · 7 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Sander Hestetun Kilen · 5 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Emil Breivik · 3 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

4Sandefjord to win

1Draws

5Molde to win

10 matches · 3.5 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-30	Molde 2-1 Sandefjord	Eliteserien
2025-10-19	Molde 1-3 Sandefjord	Eliteserien
2025-04-06	Sandefjord 3-0 Molde	Eliteserien
2024-10-19	Molde 0-1 Sandefjord	Eliteserien
2024-05-05	Sandefjord 3-1 Molde	Eliteserien
2023-08-12	Sandefjord 2-2 Molde	Eliteserien

Standings

Eliteserien standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Viking	26	+42	62
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	+40	62
3	Rosenborg	26	+21	46
4	Lillestrom	26	+4	45
5	Molde	26	+20	44
6	Tromso	26	+3	40
7	Brann	26	+3	33
8	Valerenga	26	-4	32
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	-10	31
10	KFUM Oslo	26	-13	31
11	Ham-Kam	26	-15	30
12	Fredrikstad	26	-15	30
13	Sandefjord	26	-8	28
14	Kristiansund BK	26	-21	26
15	Aalesund	26	-15	24
16	Start	26	-32	19

More stats

Referee: Mohammad Usman Aslam

32 matches · 3.1 yellows and 0.08 reds per match · 0.54 penalties

Half-time

Sandefjord: 7 days since last match · Molde: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 18:30 UTC.