Home › International · UEFA Nations League › San Marino vs Bielorrusia
San Marino vs Belarus prediction
International · UEFA Nations League
San Marino
BelarusProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Thursday, November 12 · 14:45 (Peru time) · San Marino Stadium · Referee: Goga Kikacheishvili
Belarus to win
85%- Belarus unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 (W W D L D)
- Away, Belarus are 2W 1D 1L this season
- San Marino in poor form: 5 defeats in their last 5
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
San Marino and Belarus meet in the UEFA Nations League.
The PickMania model gives San Marino a 5% chance of winning, 10% for the draw and 85% for Belarus.
3.1 total goals are expected (0.4 from San Marino and 2.6 from Belarus): over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance and both teams to score 30%.
The most likely score is 0-2.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: San Marino 0.43 · Belarus 2.65
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.08.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.0 in total · San Marino 4.3 · Belarus 4.7
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.6 · el árbitro Goga Kikacheishvili saca 3.0 por partido
⏱️ First half
41% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.25
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
San Marino: 8 matches · Belarus: 8 matches (all competitions with data).
San Marino at home · Belarus away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 2 of 7 matches and wins 0 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 0.
Scores first in 6 of 7 matches and wins 5 of them.
Concedes first in 1 and avoids defeat in 0.
Players in form
Lorenzo Lazzari · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
N. Nanni · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
A. Tosi · 0 goles, 1 assists in 3 matches
Artem Shumanskiy · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
K. Pechenin · 0 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches
A. Kontsevoy · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches
Head to head
3 matches · 3.7 goals per match
| 2026-10-03 | Belarus 4-0 San Marino | UEFA Nations League |
| 2018-11-18 | San Marino 0-2 Belarus | UEFA Nations League |
| 2018-09-08 | Belarus 5-0 San Marino | UEFA Nations League |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albania | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 | Belarus | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Finland | 4 | +7 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | -15 | 0 |
More stats
9 matches · 2.8 yellows and 0.20 reds per match · 0.20 penalties
San Marino: 37 days since last match · Belarus: 37 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 08:47 UTC.