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Ried vs Lask Linz prediction

Austria · Bundesliga

Ried#6 · 16 ptsDDWWW

2 - 4Full time

Lask Linz#3 · 25 ptsWWLWW

15%24%61%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Christoph Lang 3'⚽ Miguel Freckleton 32' (p.p.)⚽ Ante Bajic 37'⚽ João Victor Tornich 39'⚽ Moses Usor 90'⚽ Krystof Danek 90'

Saturday, 7 November · 13:30 (Peru time) · Josko Arena · Referee: Harald Lechner

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

85%

Full data

2+ goals in 10 of 11 Ried matches
Also in 16 of 17 Lask Linz matches
Head to head: 3.3 goals per match

⚡ Summary

61%Lask Linz to win@1.63 64%Over 2.5 goals@1.55 61%Both teams to score@1.63 51%Corners +9.5 (10.0)@1.9637%Cards +4.5 (4.0)@2.731-1Most likely score · 10%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+5⚽ Krystof DanekLask Linz

90'+2🔁 Sub: Robert Ljubicic · Daniel ElfadliLask Linz

90'⚽ Moses Usor assist Kasper JorgensenLask Linz

90'🔁 Sub: Martin Rasner · Jussef NasraweRied

88'🔁 Sub: Isaac Thelin · Evan Eghosa AisowierenRied

88'🔁 Sub: J. Rhodes · Oliver SorgRied

81'🔁 Sub: Moegamat Yusuf Maart · Lukas MalicsekRied

81'🔁 Sub: Ante Bajic · Joris BoguoRied

77'🔁 Sub: Sasa Kalajdzic · Samuel AdeniranLask Linz

77'🔁 Sub: Sascha Horvath · Krystof DanekLask Linz

67'🟨 Samuel ChukwudiRied

61'🔁 Sub: Christoph Lang · Moses UsorLask Linz

61'🔁 Sub: Florian Flecker · Kasper JorgensenLask Linz

39'⚽ João Victor Tornich assist Sasa KalajdzicLask Linz

37'⚽ Ante Bajic assist Stefan SchwabRied

32'⚽ Miguel Freckleton (own goal)Ried

14'🟨 M. DespotovićRied

3'⚽ Christoph Lang assist Sasa KalajdzicLask Linz

Win probability minute by minute

RiedDrawLask Linz

At kick-off15%24%61%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

15%Ried to win@6.73

24%Draw@4.22

61%Lask Linz to win@1.63

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score61%

Ried or draw39%

Lask Linz or draw85%

Ried to score67%

Lask Linz to score89%

Most likely scores

1-110%1-29%0-28%0-17%1-37%

Expected goals per the model: Ried 1.12 · Lask Linz 2.30

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.42.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.0 in total · Ried 3.7 · Lask Linz 6.2

61%Over 8.5@1.63

51%Over 9.5@1.96

41%Over 10.5@2.43

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.0

53%Over 3.5@1.87

37%Over 4.5@2.73

23%Over 5.5@4.30

⏱️ First half

52% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.78

83%Goal in the 1st half@1.20

53%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@1.88

81%Goal in the 2st half@1.24

⚽ Goals per team

31%Ried +1.5@3.24

67%Lask Linz +1.5@1.49

6%Ried to win to nil@17.86

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.96Expected goals (xG)1.29

3Shots on target6

2Saves2

2Offsides0

11Shots17

1Yellow cards0

4Corners3

7Fouls15

0Red cards0

48Possession %52

Goals in the last 10 matches

Ried · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals9/10both teams to score3.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Lask Linz · last 10 matches

9/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score4.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

RiedLask Linz

1.7Goals scored per match2.4

1.6Goals conceded per match1.5

91%Matches with over 1.5 goals94%

64%Matches with over 2.5 goals82%

91%Both teams to score53%

9%Clean sheet29%

0%Matches without scoring18%

4.0Corners won per match6.5

2.3Yellow cards per match1.6

Ried: 11 matches · Lask Linz: 17 matches (all competitions with data).

Ried at home · Lask Linz away

Ried at home

3G1E1P

WWDWL

Lask Linz away

4G1E3P

WWDLL

When do they score and concede?

Ried · goals by minute in 11 matches scored conceded

Lask Linz · goals by minute in 17 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Ried

Scores first in 4 of 11 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 5.

Lask Linz

Scores first in 7 of 17 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 10 and avoids defeat in 5.

Players in form

Ried

Isaac Thelin · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Philipp Pomer · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

S. Schwab · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Lask Linz

Samuel Adeniran · 3 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Robert Ljubicic · 2 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches

Christoph Lang · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

2Ried to win

5Draws

3Lask Linz to win

10 matches · 3.3 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-10-28	Lask Linz 5-4 Ried	Cup
2026-08-14	Lask Linz 4-1 Ried	Bundesliga
2026-03-18	Ried 1-2 Lask Linz	Cup
2026-02-14	Ried 1-1 Lask Linz	Bundesliga
2025-08-30	Lask Linz 1-3 Ried	Bundesliga
2025-03-21	Lask Linz 1-1 Ried	Friendlies Clubs

Standings

Bundesliga standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	12	+30	33
2	Red Bull Salzburg	12	+24	30
3	Lask Linz	12	+15	25
4	TSV Hartberg	12	+4	20
5	Sturm Graz	12	+5	19
6	Ried	12	-1	16
7	WSG Wattens	12	-3	13
8	Austria Lustenau	12	-15	11
9	SCR Altach	12	-9	10
10	Grazer AK	12	-20	10
11	Austria Vienna	12	-12	8
12	Wolfsberger AC	12	-18	6

More stats

Referee: Harald Lechner

4 matches · 5.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties

Half-time

Ried: 7 days since last match · Lask Linz: 3 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 21:00 UTC.