Home › Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX › Piratas vs CA La Paz
Piratas vs CA La Paz prediction
Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX
Piratas
CA La PazProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Wednesday, November 11 · 21:00 (Peru time)
Over 1.5 goals
81%- 2+ goals in 14 of 17 Piratas matches
- Also in 15 of 17 CA La Paz matches
- Picky expects 3.1 goals (1.7 - 1.4)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Piratas and CA La Paz meet in the Liga de Expansión MX.
The PickMania model gives Piratas a 41% chance of winning, 30% for the draw and 29% for CA La Paz.
3.1 total goals are expected (1.7 from Piratas and 1.4 from CA La Paz): over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance and both teams to score 62%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Piratas 1.67 · CA La Paz 1.40
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.07.
Corners, cards and first half
⏱️ First half
45% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.38
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Piratas: 17 matches · CA La Paz: 17 matches (all competitions with data).
Piratas at home · CA La Paz away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 8 of 15 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 4.
Scores first in 11 of 17 matches and wins 8 of them.
Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 4.
Players in form
C. Fernandez · 3 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
D. Cruz · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
O. Soto · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches
Martín Barragán · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
U. Jaimes · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
Ángel Robles · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
1 matches · 2.0 goals per match
| 2026-08-15 | CA La Paz 2-0 Piratas | Liga de Expansión MX |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 15 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 | Monarcas | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 | Piratas | 15 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 | Cancún | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 15 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 | Durango | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatío | 15 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 | Correcaminos Uat | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Dorados | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 15 | -33 | 7 |
More stats
Piratas: 3 days since last match · CA La Paz: 3 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.