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Penybont vs Caernarfon Town prediction
Wales · Premier League
Penybont
Caernarfon TownPre-match probabilities
Friday, November 6 · 14:45 (Peru time) · Bryntirion Park · Referee: B. Markham-Jones
Penybont to score
81%- Penybont scored in 12 of 16 matches this season
- Penybont average 1.9 goals per match
- Caernarfon Town concede 1.7 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Penybont 1.67 · Caernarfon Town 1.30
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.97.
Corners, cards and first half
⏱️ First half
55% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.62
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Penybont: 16 matches · Caernarfon Town: 17 matches (all competitions with data).
Penybont at home · Caernarfon Town away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 7 of 15 matches and wins 6 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 5.
Scores first in 9 of 17 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 3.
Players in form
T. Mehew · 4 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
E. Cann · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
T. Walker · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
S. Bradley · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Z. Clarke · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
H. Charsley · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 3.1 goals per match
| 2026-08-07 | Caernarfon Town 1-2 Penybont | Premier League |
| 2026-04-18 | Caernarfon Town 2-0 Penybont | Premier League |
| 2026-01-24 | Penybont 0-0 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| 2025-10-25 | Penybont 0-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| 2025-09-20 | Caernarfon Town 1-2 Penybont | Premier League |
| 2025-04-13 | Penybont 3-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 16 | +48 | 44 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 16 | +25 | 38 |
| 3 | Penybont | 15 | +21 | 36 |
| 4 | Colwyn Bay | 16 | +10 | 32 |
| 5 | Airbus UK | 16 | +10 | 30 |
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 16 | +21 | 29 |
| 7 | Barry Town | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 | Cardiff MET | 16 | +6 | 25 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 16 | -15 | 19 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 16 | -7 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 16 | -11 | 16 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 16 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 16 | -30 | 12 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 16 | -29 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 15 | -36 | 2 |
More stats
20 matches · – yellows and – reds per match · 0.50 penalties
Penybont: 6 days since last match · Caernarfon Town: 7 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 22:30 UTC.