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Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes prediction
France · Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain
Estac TroyesPre-match probabilities
Saturday, November 7 · 15:05 (Peru time) · Parc des Princes · Referee: Ruddy Buquet
Paris Saint Germain to win
83%- Paris Saint Germain have won 5 of their last 5 (W W W W W)
- At home, Paris Saint Germain are 4W 0D 1L this season
- Estac Troyes in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Paris Saint Germain 3.00 · Estac Troyes 0.71
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.71.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 8.5 in total · Paris Saint Germain 3.8 · Estac Troyes 4.7
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.3 · el árbitro Ruddy Buquet saca 4.0 por partido
⏱️ First half
43% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.58
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Paris Saint Germain: 13 matches · Estac Troyes: 9 matches (all competitions with data).
Paris Saint Germain at home · Estac Troyes away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 9 of 13 matches and wins 8 of them.
Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 4.
Scores first in 3 of 7 matches and wins 2 of them.
Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 0.
Players in form
Achraf Hakimi · 3 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches
Désiré Doue · 3 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
Senny Mayulu · 3 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
Mouhamed Diop · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Timothee Nkada · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Ismaël Boura · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 4.1 goals per match
| 2023-05-07 | Estac Troyes 1-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-10-29 | Paris Saint Germain 4-3 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-05-08 | Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-08-07 | Estac Troyes 1-2 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2018-03-03 | Estac Troyes 0-2 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2017-11-29 | Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 | Lille | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 | Nice | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 | Rennes | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 | Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Angers | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | -13 | 2 |
More stats
6 matches · 4.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties
Paris Saint Germain: 4 days since last match · Estac Troyes: 7 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 22:40 UTC.